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Uptrend Exhaustion

Uptrend Exhaustion stock alert presents a technical analysis stock market picking technique based on combination of technical indicators, stock trend analysis, trend following indicators and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. Uptrend Exhaustion alert indicates that long term uptrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Uptrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for overvalued stocks.

The strategy is based on selling (or taking a short) position on anticipation of uptrend reversal.

Uptrend Exhaustion

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- 11/15/2024 -
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Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken uptrend resistance line - uptrend exhaustionRelative Strength Index, Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overboughtStochastic has declined below the signal line
Daily :Lane's Stochastic is overboughtStochastic has declined below the signal lineThe period of high volatility of the stock price
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It was the negative week for the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY). During the week, the XLY gave back -1.70 points, or -0.79%, and closed at 213.40 on Friday, November 15, 2024. XLY was trading at average weekly trading volume.

Long-term trend: [See XLY long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on December 28, 2022 at 126.00 and reached 220.40 on November 11, 2024. XLY gained -94.40 points, or -74.92%, in 97 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. The uptrend resistance line (165.26) is broken, while daily and weekly technical indicators are overbought. Uptrend is exhausted and trend reversal is possible soon. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See XLY medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on August 5, 2024 at 166.48 and reached 220.40 on November 11, 2024. XLY gained -53.92 points, or -32.39%, in 14 weeks. The price is now at the 12.98% retracement level.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See XLY weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Relative Strength Index, Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Relative Strength Index, Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. During the last week, weekly Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has declined below the overbought signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic, Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since September 6, 2024. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current medium-term uptrend is strong. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See XLY short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on October 23, 2024 at 193.05 and reached 220.40 on November 11, 2024. XLY gained -27.35 points, or -14.17%, in 19 days. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 203.68 and resistance is at 227.33. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a short-term trend.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See XLY daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Lane's Stochastic. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has declined below the overbought signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bearish signal.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since November 4, 2024. This is an indication that the short-term trend is up.

The distance between the Bollinger Bands is 106.93% higher then one year average. It indicates the period of high volatility of the stock price. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 66.17
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 23.00
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 82.56
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 75.23
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 4.18
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 80.83
Overbought
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 11.70
Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 86.58
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 79.30
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 5.23
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Weekly Trendline Resistance 227.33
Upper Bollinger Band 223.79
Daily Stochastic Crossing 217.38
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 216.74
Price 213.40
Parabolic System 210.77
20 Day Moving Average 205.55
Weekly Trendline Support 203.68
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 200.76
50 Day Moving Average 199.93
Lower Bollinger Band 191.31
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 220.40
High Date 11/11/2024
Low 212.50
Low Date 11/15/2024
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 227.33
Support 203.68
Low 193.05
Low Date 10/23/2024
High 220.40
High Date 11/11/2024
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 166.48
Low Date 08/05/2024
High 220.40
High Date 11/11/2024
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Channel
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 200.76
Support 165.26
Low 126.00
Low Date 12/28/2022
High 220.40
High Date 11/11/2024
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 15.85
Low Date 03/06/2009
High 220.40
High Date 11/11/2024
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.