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Stock Market Trend Analysis Newsletter.
Weekly Market Overview - 2/28/2020
Weekly Stock Market Overview

Major US indices
During the past week (Feb. 24 - 28, 2020), the S&P 500 (^GSPC) sank 383.53 points, or 11.49%, and closed at 2954.22. It was the biggest weekly loss since October 10, 2008 when S&P 500 lost more than 18.2% in one week.

S&P 500 intermediate Trend Analysis: Rising Wedge breakdown

The S&P 500 Intermediate Wave started on December 26, 2018 at 2346.58 and reached 3393.52 on February 19, 2020, making 45% gain in fourteen months. The Intermediate Wave has formed an extended Rising Wedge chart pattern. Usually, a rising wedge forms at the end of an uptrend and is followed by a sharp breakdown.

^GSPC: S&P 500


The price movement after the breakdown is usually approximately of the same magnitude as the height of the formation. The S&P 500 Rising Wedge triangle breakdown started on February 19, 2020 at 3,393.52 and reached 2,855.84 on February 28, 2020, making a 537.68 or 15.84% loss in seven business days. This value is pretty close to the rising wedge triangle formation's height - 493.62. This means that the intermediate wave rising wedge breakdown might be completed.

S&P 500 Cycle Trend Analysis: Rising Channel

The S&P 500 Cycle Wave had started on March 6th, 2009 at 666.79 and reached 3393.52 on February 19, 2020, making more than 400% gain in eleven years. The Cycle Wave formed a Rising Channel. The channel resistance line has been broken up by the intermediate Rising Wedge wave.

^GSPC: S&P 500

During the rising wedge breakdown, the S&P 500 crossed below the 200 Day Moving Average that currently is at 3047.174. More than 52% of S&P 500 component stocks have the price below the Lower Bollinger Band, and almost 50% of S&P 500 component stocks have strongly oversold the daily Williams' Percentage Range (W%R). It is the highest level since January 15, 2016. Lane's Stochastic is strongly oversold in a daily time frame while it is still strongly overbought in a monthly time frame.

The current price is near the Cycle Wave channel resistance. Usually, the broken resistance line becomes a support line. Since 50% of stocks are strongly oversold, the chances are high that this support line may hold for a while, and price may pause and retest the 200 Day Moving Average. Considering that price is still strongly overbought in a monthly time frame and that the rising wedge usually formed at the end of an uptrend, the S&P 500 may test the Cycle Wave channel support line (currently is near 2570.44) after the short pause.

Sector Rotation
The Consumer Staples sector was the strongest sector last week, followed by the Health Care sector. The Energy sector was the worst performing sector of the week (-16.38%), followed by the Financial sector (-13.58%).

The Healthcare sector is the most overvalued sector, followed by Utilities, while Medical Labs & Research, Specialized Health Svcs, and Drugs - Generic are among the most overvalued industries. The Services sector is the most oversold sector, followed by Basic Materials, while Major Integrated Oil/Gas, Wholesale Other, and Oil & Gas Refining/Mrktng are among the most oversold industries.
The Dow Jones has formed a Triangle chart pattern
The Dow Jones quarterly wave has formed a Triangle chart pattern. The triangle resistance line is broken. Price is retesting the former resistance line.
Sep 17, 2023
The Dow Jones has formed the Elliott Wave Impulse Wave pattern
Almost 6% of S&P 500 component stocks have strongly oversold weekly Lane's Stochastic. It is the highest level since April 03, 2020.
Oct 02, 2022
The S&P 500 - fifth consecutive negative week
More than 40% of S&P 500 component stocks have oversold weekly Williams' Percentage Range (W%R). It is the highest level since March 20, 2020.
May 08, 2022
The NASDAQ price is near the quarterly rising rhannel support level.
The Dow Jones price is near the 200 Day Moving Average.
Dec 04, 2021
The highest number of strongly overbought stocks since January
The NASDAQ Composite index has formed the Rising Channel chart pattern, and price is near the resistance level.
Aug 29, 2020
Bear market correction can be mistaken for the start of a new upswing.
Weekly uptrend has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The Rising Wedge in downtrend indicates that higher level downtrend is not over yet.
Apr 17, 2020
Reduce the risk and use some stop losses techniques
S&P 500 Elliot Wave's cycle consists of eight waves; the five-wave motive phase followed by three-wave corrective phase.
Apr 12, 2020
The Best Trading Strategies for the Trending Market
S&P 500 Elliot Waves Analysis: falling channel has a five sub-waves impulse structure.
Mar 22, 2020
S&P 500 Bearish Trend Analysis
What to expect if the S&P breaks the long term rising channel support trendline.
Mar 14, 2020
S&P 500 Rising Wedge Breakdown
The S&P 500 intermediate trend Rising Wedge breakdown caused the biggest weekly loss since October 2008.
Mar 1 , 2020
NASDAQ biggest weekly advance
It was the biggest weekly NASDAQ advance recorded. More than 30% of S&P members are trading at their highest price in the past 52 weeks.
Jan 7 , 2018
Eighth consecutive positive week
It was the eighth consecutive positive week for S&P 500 index. More than 40% of S&P 500 component stocks have overbought weekly Lane's Stochastic. It is the highest level since April 29, 2016.
Nov 5 , 2017
ETF's Currency Shares Alert.
CurrencyShares Swedish Krona Trust (FXS) weekly downtrend reached 116.62 on September 27, making the biggest weekly drop since October 2015.
Sep 24, 2017
Dow Jones Industrial Average monthly uptrend - five-wave structure.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average monthly uptrend has formed a five-wave structure. It started on April 19, 2017 at 20,379.55 and reached 22,419.51 on September 21, 2017.
Sep 24, 2017
Sixth consecutive positive week for the S&P 500.
Almost 56% of S&P 500 component stocks have overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range. It is the highest level since December 26, 2014.
Mar 5 , 2017
Third consecutive negative week for the Dow Jones
Almost 40% of S&P 500 component stocks have oversold daily Lane's Stochastic. It is a highest level since November 16, 2012.
Mar 15, 2015
Dow Jones is near 200 Day Moving Average
During the past week, Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 507.65 points or 2.87%, to 17164.95. Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought in a monthly time frame. The Dow Jones price is near 200 Day Moving Average.
Feb 1 , 2015
S&P 500 at highest level since Oct 2007
The major indices and more than a half of S&P 500 members are strongly overbought in daily, weekly, and monthly time frames.
Mar 17, 2013
S&P 500 members Downtrend Resistance Alert
Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and More than 40% of S&P 500 members have the Downtrend Resistance Alert.
Oct 30, 2011
The short-term rally is over
S&P 500 index may break the support around 1100 and move down to the next support area around 1000 - 950.
Sep 5 , 2011
S&P 500 is close to the 50 Day Moving Average
S&P 500 index has fallen below the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). Price is close to the 50 Day Moving Average.
Mar 13, 2011
S&P 500 index wave's structure
S&P 500 medium-term uptrend has a five wave's structure. The fifth sub wave is near completion.
Dec 26, 2010
Monthly W%R is strongly overbought for the first time since October 2007
The S&P 500 technical indicators are pretty close to the beginning of October 2007, just a week prior the beginning of the bear market of 2007-2009.
Oct 17, 2010
More than a half of S&P 500 members are overbought
More than 10% of S&P 500 index members made a new 52-week high, but almost a half of them closed this week below the previous week's close.
Sep 12, 2010
S&P 500 members - Trend Support Alert
Daily and weekly indicators are oversold for all three major US indices. More than 28% of S&P members are oversold, and more than 22% have a Trend Support Alert.
Jul 4 , 2010
S&P 500 members - Downtrend Resistance alert
More than 60 S&P members have the Downtrend Resistance Alert. Daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought.
Jun 20, 2010
S&P 500 members - uptrend support alert
More than 30% of S&P 500 members have an uptrend support alert. This alert indicates that stock price is near the monthly uptrend support level.
May 23, 2010
Dow Jones Elliott Wave count
Dow Jones gained 68.03% in 53 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. Fifth wave up is in progress.
Mar 21, 2010
NASDAQ at the highest level since September 2008
NASDAQ medium-term trend has formed a five-wave structure. The fifth wave is in progress now. The price is near the trend resistance line (2331.43).
Mar 5 , 2010
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Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.
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