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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 2/20/2026 -
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Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (BSV) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :
Daily :Lane's Stochastic is overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly overboughtStochastic has declined below the signal lineA Parabolic SAR indicator is above and near the pricePrice is close to the 50 Day Moving AverageThe price touches the upper Bollinger Band
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It was the negative week for the Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (BSV). During the week, the BSV gave back -0.04 points, or -0.05%, and closed at 79.06 on Friday, February 20, 2026. BSV was trading at average weekly trading volume.

Long-term trend: [See BSV long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on January 13, 2025 at 76.93 and reached 79.21 on October 21, 2025. BSV gained -2.28 points, or -2.96%, in 40 weeks. The price is now at the 6.58% retracement level.

Medium-term trend: [See BSV medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term downtrend had started on October 21, 2025 at 79.21 and reached 78.58 on January 20, 2026. BSV lost 0.63 points, or 0.80%, in 13 weeks. The price is now at the 76.19% retracement level.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See BSV weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly technical indicators are neutral.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since October 31, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. It indicates that the current medium-term downtrend is getting weak. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See BSV short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on February 3, 2026 at 78.59 and reached 79.11 on February 13, 2026. BSV gained -0.52 points, or -0.66%, in 10 days. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See BSV daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Lane's Stochastic or strongly overbought daily Williams' Percentage Range. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has declined below the overbought signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since February 9, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is up.

A Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal) indicator (78.72) comes close to the price (79.06). It indicates that the trend is getting weaker. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

The price touches the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Price is close to the 50 Day Moving Average. While daily technical indicators are overbought, the 50 Day Moving Average is considered a resistance level. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 55.56
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 7.70
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 86.84
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 78.24
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.04
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 59.04
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 22.20
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 54.38
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 60.81
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.11
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 79.19
Daily Stochastic Crossing 79.06
Price 79.06
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 78.90
20 Day Moving Average 78.88
50 Day Moving Average 78.83
Parabolic System 78.72
Lower Bollinger Band 78.64
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Low 78.59
Low Date 02/03/2026
High 79.11
High Date 02/13/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 78.58
Low Date 01/20/2026
High 79.11
High Date 02/13/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 79.21
High Date 10/21/2025
Low 78.58
Low Date 01/20/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 76.93
Low Date 01/13/2025
High 79.21
High Date 10/21/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 74.03
Low Date 10/21/2022
High 79.21
High Date 10/21/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.