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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 12/19/2025 -
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Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (BSV) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken trend support line
Daily :Williams' Percentage Range is oversoldA Parabolic SAR indicator is below and near the pricePrice is close to the 50 Day Moving AverageBullish Doji CandlestickThe price touches the lower Bollinger Band
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It was the negative week for the Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (BSV). During the week, the BSV gave back -0.10 points, or -0.13%, and closed at 78.72 on Friday, December 19, 2025. Weekly volume was 21% above average.

Long-term trend: [See BSV long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on January 13, 2025 at 76.93 and reached 79.21 on October 21, 2025. BSV gained -2.28 points, or -2.96%, in 40 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The uptrend support line (79.44) is broken. Usually a broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal, but since daily indicators are oversold a short-term pull back is possible. BSV may retest the broken support line. It is considered to be a resistance line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See BSV medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term downtrend had started on October 21, 2025 at 79.21 and reached 78.63 on November 5, 2025. BSV lost 0.58 points, or 0.73%, in 2 weeks. The chart has formed a Rectangle chart pattern. The trend support level is at 78.64 and resistance is at 79.20. A rectangle chart pattern is characterized as a short-term horizontal channel and represents a trading range and indecision area that is usually resolves in the direction of the main trend. Chart analysis usually considers a rectangle pattern a continuation formation, but it can also mark significant top and bottom. A rectangle pattern within younger parent trend has more chances to mark a continuation. Use the following link to access a Rectangle chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Rectangle pattern in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See BSV weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly technical indicators are neutral.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since October 31, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is down. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See BSV short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on December 10, 2025 at 78.65 and reached 78.95 on December 16, 2025. BSV gained -0.30 points, or -0.38%, in 6 days. The price is now at the 76.67% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See BSV daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Williams' Percentage Range is oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily oversold Williams' Percentage Range. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following link to access Williams' Percentage Range help.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since December 17, 2025. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller.

A Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal) indicator (78.93) comes close to the price (78.72). It indicates that the trend is getting weaker. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

The price touches the lower Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Price is close to the 50 Day Moving Average. While daily technical indicators are oversold, the 50 Day Moving Average is considered a support level. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Candlestick pattern: [See BSV candlestick chart pattern]
On Friday the chart has formed a Bullish Doji Candlestick pattern. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks that had a Bullish Doji Candlestick pattern during the last week.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 45.35
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 87.00
Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 66.14
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 41.49
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.02
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 43.92
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 58.30
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 43.31
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 44.70
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.21
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Quarterly Trendline Support 79.44
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 79.34
Monthly Trendline Resistance 79.20
Upper Bollinger Band 79.15
Parabolic System 78.93
50 Day Moving Average 78.93
20 Day Moving Average 78.89
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 78.88
Daily Stochastic Crossing 78.84
Price 78.72
Monthly Trendline Support 78.64
Lower Bollinger Band 78.56
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 78.65
Low Date 12/10/2025
High 78.95
High Date 12/16/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 79.19
High Date 11/28/2025
Low 78.65
Low Date 12/10/2025
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Rectangle
Status Valid
Resistance 79.20
Support 78.64
High 79.21
High Date 10/21/2025
Low 78.63
Low Date 11/05/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Status Broken Support
Resistance 79.34
Support 79.44
Low 76.93
Low Date 01/13/2025
High 79.21
High Date 10/21/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 74.03
Low Date 10/21/2022
High 79.21
High Date 10/21/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.