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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 10/24/2025 -
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Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (BSV) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overboughtLane's Stochastic and MACD bearish divergence
Daily :Lane's Stochastic is overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly overboughtA Parabolic SAR indicator is above and near the pricePrice is close to the 50 Day Moving AverageThe price touches the upper Bollinger Band
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It was a third consecutive positive week for the Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (BSV). During the week, the BSV climbed 0.03 points, or 0.04%, and closed at 79.17 on Friday, October 24, 2025. Weekly volume was 13% above average.

Long-term trend: [See BSV long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on January 13, 2025 at 76.93 and reached 79.21 on October 21, 2025. BSV gained -2.28 points, or -2.96%, in 40 weeks. Price is near the trend high.

Medium-term trend: [See BSV medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on April 11, 2025 at 77.59 and reached 79.21 on October 21, 2025. BSV gained -1.62 points, or -2.09%, in 27 weeks. Price is near the trend high.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See BSV weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with strongly overbought weekly overbought Williams' Percentage Range. Weekly Lane's Stochastic and MACD have bearish divergence. Use the following links to access the Lane's Stochastic and MACD help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with weekly Lane's Stochastic and MACD bearish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since July 25, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. It indicates that the current medium-term uptrend is getting weak. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See BSV short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on October 6, 2025 at 78.71 and reached 79.21 on October 21, 2025. BSV gained -0.50 points, or -0.64%, in 15 days. The price is now at the 8.00% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See BSV daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Lane's Stochastic or strongly overbought daily Williams' Percentage Range.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since October 13, 2025. This is an indication that the short-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. It indicates that the current short-term uptrend is getting weak.

A Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal) indicator (79.03) comes close to the price (79.17). It indicates that the trend is getting weaker. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

The price touches the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Price is close to the 50 Day Moving Average. While daily technical indicators are overbought, the 50 Day Moving Average is considered a resistance level. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 75.90
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 4.00
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 85.36
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 85.75
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.07
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 78.87
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 1.50
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 69.74
Bearish
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 76.09
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.25 Bearish
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 79.35
Daily Stochastic Crossing 79.17
Price 79.17
Parabolic System 79.03
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 79.03
20 Day Moving Average 78.97
50 Day Moving Average 78.90
Lower Bollinger Band 78.69
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 79.10
Low Date 10/23/2025
High 79.19
High Date 10/24/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 78.71
Low Date 10/06/2025
High 79.21
High Date 10/21/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 77.59
Low Date 04/11/2025
High 79.21
High Date 10/21/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 76.93
Low Date 01/13/2025
High 79.21
High Date 10/21/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 74.03
Low Date 10/21/2022
High 79.21
High Date 10/21/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.