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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 4/17/2026 -
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Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (BSV) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Lane's Stochastic is oversoldBroken trend resistance line
Daily :Lane's Stochastic is overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly overboughtA Parabolic SAR indicator is above and near the pricePrice is close to the 50 Day Moving AverageThe price touches the upper Bollinger Band
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It was a fourth positive week after 3 consecutive negative weeks for the Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (BSV). During the week, the BSV climbed 0.30 points, or 0.38%, and closed at 78.57 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Weekly volume was -32% below average.

Long-term trend: [See BSV long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on February 27, 2026 at 79.32 and reached 77.99 on March 26, 2026. BSV lost 1.33 points, or 1.68%, in 3 weeks. The chart has formed a Falling Wedge chart pattern. The downtrend resistance line (77.33) is broken. Usually a broken resistance is considered to be a long-term bullish signal, but since daily indicators are overbought a short-term pull back is possible. BSV may retest the broken resistance line. It is considered to be a support line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See BSV medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on March 26, 2026 at 77.99 and reached 78.60 on April 17, 2026. BSV gained -0.61 points, or -0.78%, in 3 weeks. Price is near the trend high.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See BSV weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Lane's Stochastic is oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with weekly oversold Lane's Stochastic. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following link to access Lane's Stochastic help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since February 27, 2026. The distance between MACD and the signal line is relatively high, but getting smaller. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See BSV short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on April 7, 2026 at 78.04 and reached 78.60 on April 17, 2026. BSV gained -0.56 points, or -0.72%, in 10 days. The price is now at the 5.36% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See BSV daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Lane's Stochastic or strongly overbought daily Williams' Percentage Range. Use the following link to access Williams' Percentage Range help.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since April 2, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is relatively high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current short-term uptrend is strong.

A Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal) indicator (78.23) comes close to the price (78.57). It indicates that the trend is getting weaker. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

The price touches the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Price is close to the 50 Day Moving Average. While daily technical indicators are overbought, the 50 Day Moving Average is considered a resistance level. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 65.69
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 9.80
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 88.27
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 81.38
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.08
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 45.56
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 58.60
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 18.87
Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 36.17
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.00
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 78.64
50 Day Moving Average 78.61
Daily Stochastic Crossing 78.57
Price 78.57
20 Day Moving Average 78.27
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 78.26
Parabolic System 78.23
Lower Bollinger Band 78.11
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 77.35
Quarterly Trendline Support 77.33
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 78.04
Low Date 04/07/2026
High 78.60
High Date 04/17/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 78.04
Low Date 04/07/2026
High 78.60
High Date 04/17/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 77.99
Low Date 03/26/2026
High 78.60
High Date 04/17/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Wedge
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 77.35
Support 77.33
High 79.32
High Date 02/27/2026
Low 77.99
Low Date 03/26/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 74.03
Low Date 10/21/2022
High 79.32
High Date 02/27/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.