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Uptrend Exhaustion

Uptrend Exhaustion stock alert presents a technical analysis stock market picking technique based on combination of technical indicators, stock trend analysis, trend following indicators and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. Uptrend Exhaustion alert indicates that long term uptrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Uptrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for overvalued stocks.

The strategy is based on selling (or taking a short) position on anticipation of uptrend reversal.

Uptrend Exhaustion

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- 8/29/2025 -
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Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (BSV) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken uptrend resistance line - uptrend exhaustionBroken uptrend resistance line - uptrend exhaustionLane's Stochastic is overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought
Daily :Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overboughtA Parabolic SAR indicator is above and near the pricePrice is close to the 50 Day Moving AverageThe price is above the upper Bollinger BandTrend resistance at 78.97
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It was a third consecutive positive week for the Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (BSV). During the week, the BSV climbed 0.17 points, or 0.22%, and closed at 78.97 on Friday, August 29, 2025. Weekly volume was -32% below average.

Long-term trend: [See BSV long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on January 13, 2025 at 76.93 and reached 78.98 on August 29, 2025. BSV gained -2.05 points, or -2.66%, in 32 weeks. The chart has formed a Symmetric Triangle chart pattern. The uptrend resistance line (78.57) is broken, while daily and weekly technical indicators are overbought. Uptrend is exhausted and trend reversal is possible soon. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See BSV medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on April 11, 2025 at 77.59 and reached 78.98 on August 29, 2025. BSV gained -1.39 points, or -1.79%, in 20 weeks. The chart has formed a Symmetric Triangle chart pattern. The uptrend resistance line (78.37) is broken, while daily and weekly technical indicators are overbought. Uptrend is exhausted and trend reversal is possible soon. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See BSV weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Lane's Stochastic is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Lane's Stochastic or strongly overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since July 25, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low, but getting bigger. It indicates that the current medium-term uptrend is getting stronger. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See BSV short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on July 15, 2025 at 78.10 and reached 78.98 on August 29, 2025. BSV gained -0.88 points, or -1.13%, in 45 days. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. The price is near the trend resistance line (78.97). The resistance is usually stronger when technical indicators are overbought. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with price testing the trend resistance line in a short-term trend.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See BSV daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with strongly overbought daily overbought Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since August 21, 2025. This is an indication that the short-term trend is up.

A Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal) indicator (78.66) comes close to the price (78.97). It indicates that the trend is getting weaker. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

The price has closed on Friday above the upper Bollinger Band. It is considered a bullish signal. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Price is close to the 50 Day Moving Average. While daily technical indicators are overbought, the 50 Day Moving Average is considered a resistance level. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 70.87
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 8.30
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 92.89
Strong Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 85.14
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.10
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 65.83
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 2.90
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 84.68
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 80.05
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.19
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Price 78.97
Weekly Trendline Resistance 78.97
Daily Stochastic Crossing 78.97
Upper Bollinger Band 78.96
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 78.88
20 Day Moving Average 78.68
Weekly Trendline Support 78.67
Parabolic System 78.66
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 78.64
Monthly Trendline Resistance 78.62
Quarterly Trendline Support 78.57
50 Day Moving Average 78.50
Lower Bollinger Band 78.42
Monthly Trendline Support 78.37
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 78.93
Low Date 08/27/2025
High 78.98
High Date 08/29/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Channel
Status Test Resistance
Resistance 78.97
Support 78.67
Low 78.10
Low Date 07/15/2025
High 78.98
High Date 08/29/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Symmetric Triangle
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 78.62
Support 78.37
Low 77.59
Low Date 04/11/2025
High 78.98
High Date 08/29/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Symmetric Triangle
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 78.64
Support 78.57
Low 76.93
Low Date 01/13/2025
High 78.98
High Date 08/29/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 74.03
Low Date 10/21/2022
High 79.02
High Date 09/27/2024
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.