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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 2/6/2026 -
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D.R. Horton (DHI) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken trend resistance lineBroken trend resistance line
Daily :Stochastic signal line moved above oversold areaDaily  MACD line has moved above its signal lineThe price has risen above the Parabolic SARPrice has crossed above the 50 Day Moving AveragePrice is near the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement levelThe price moved above the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands
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It was a first positive week after 3 consecutive negative weeks for the D.R. Horton (DHI). During the week, the DHI gained 7.43 points, or 4.99%, and closed at 156.27 on Friday, February 6, 2026. Weekly volume was -8% below average.

Long-term trend: [See DHI long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on April 9, 2025 at 110.40 and reached 184.55 on September 8, 2025. DHI gained -74.15 points, or -67.16%, in 21 weeks. The chart has formed a Symmetric Triangle chart pattern. The uptrend resistance line (141.63) is broken. Usually a broken resistance is considered to be a long-term bullish signal, although a short-term pull back is possible. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See DHI medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term downtrend had started on September 8, 2025 at 184.55 and reached 134.74 on November 18, 2025. DHI lost 49.81 points, or 26.99%, in 10 weeks. The chart has formed a Symmetric Triangle chart pattern. The downtrend resistance line (139.44) is broken. A broken support is considered to be a long-term bullish signal. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See DHI weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly technical indicators are neutral.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since October 17, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. It indicates that the current medium-term downtrend is getting weak. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See DHI short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on January 8, 2026 at 137.70 and reached 161.93 on January 16, 2026. DHI gained -24.23 points, or -17.60%, in 8 days. Price is near the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level. The Fibonacci retracement level is considered a support/resistance level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See DHI daily technical indicators chart]
Daily technical indicators are neutral. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic signal line (%D) has moved above oversold area. Such crossover is considered a bullish signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following link to access Lane's Stochastic help.

During the last week, daily MACD line has moved above its signal line. Such crossover is considered a bullish signal.

During the last week, the price has risen above the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). A Parabolic SAR below the price is a bullish signal, and it indicates that momentum is likely to remain in the upward direction. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

During the last week, the price has moved above the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

During the last week, the price has advanced above the 50 Day Moving Average. Such crossover is considered a bullish signal. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50.49
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 28.10
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 61.19
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 61.19
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.58
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 55.62
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 47.00
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 55.91
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 54.20
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 1.48
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 161.52
Daily Stochastic Crossing 156.71
Price 156.27
20 Day Moving Average 154.79
Weekly Trendline Resistance 153.09
Monthly Trendline Resistance 153.09
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 152.76
50 Day Moving Average 152.75
Parabolic System 147.84
Lower Bollinger Band 144.81
Monthly Trendline Support 141.63
Weekly Trendline Support 139.44
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector Consumer Discretionary 7
Industry Homebuilding 47
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 137.70
Low Date 01/08/2026
High 161.93
High Date 01/16/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Symmetric Triangle
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 153.09
Support 139.44
High 184.55
High Date 09/08/2025
Low 134.74
Low Date 11/18/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Symmetric Triangle
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 153.09
Support 141.63
Low 110.40
Low Date 04/09/2025
High 184.55
High Date 09/08/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 199.85
High Date 09/19/2024
Low 110.40
Low Date 04/09/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 3.79
Low Date 11/21/2008
High 199.85
High Date 09/19/2024
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.