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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 10/10/2025 -
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D.R. Horton (DHI) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :
Daily :Stochastic has declined below the signal lineThe price has fallen below the Parabolic SARThe price is below the lower Bollinger BandLane's Stochastic oversoldWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly oversoldLane's Stochastic bullish divergencePrice has crossed below the 50 Day Moving AverageBullish Homing Pigeon Candlestick
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It was the negative week for the D.R. Horton (DHI). During the week, the DHI dropped -23.37 points, or -13.36%, and closed at 151.58 on Friday, October 10, 2025. Weekly volume was 35% above average.

Long-term trend: [See DHI long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on September 19, 2024 at 199.85 and reached 110.40 on April 9, 2025. DHI lost 89.45 points, or 44.76%, in 28 weeks. The price is now at the 46.04% retracement level.

Medium-term trend: [See DHI medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on April 9, 2025 at 110.40 and reached 184.55 on September 8, 2025. DHI gained -74.15 points, or -67.16%, in 21 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 123.70 and resistance is at 198.71. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See DHI weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly technical indicators are neutral.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since May 9, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See DHI short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on September 8, 2025 at 184.55 and reached 149.69 on October 10, 2025. DHI lost 34.86 points, or 18.89%, in 32 days. The price is now at the 5.42% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See DHI daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is oversold while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold daily Lane's Stochastic or strongly oversold daily Williams' Percentage Range. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has declined below the overbought signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. Daily Lane's Stochastic has bullish divergence. Use the following links to access the Lane's Stochastic help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily Lane's Stochastic bullish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since September 11, 2025. This is an indication that the short-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current short-term downtrend is strong.

During the last week, the price has fallen below the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). A Parabolic SAR above the price is a bearish signal, and it indicates that momentum is likely to remain in the downward direction. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

The price has closed on Friday below the lower Bollinger Band. It is considered a bearish signal. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

During the last week, the price has crossed below the 50 Day Moving Average. While the medium-term trend is up and daily technical indicators are oversold, the 50 Day Moving Average is considered a support level. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Candlestick pattern: [See DHI candlestick chart pattern]
On Friday the chart has formed a Bullish Homing Pigeon Candlestick pattern. A Bullish Homing Pigeon pattern occurs in a downtrend. Market usually has a tendency to enter into a congestion phase following a Homing Pigeon pattern.The reliability of the Bullish Homing Pigeon is medium. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks that had a Bullish Homing Pigeon Candlestick pattern during the last week.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 34.95
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 90.60
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 17.53
Oversold Bullish
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 20.61
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.19
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 59.11
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 45.80
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 63.51
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 57.74
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 6.77
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 178.18
Parabolic System 172.14
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 169.46
50 Day Moving Average 166.71
20 Day Moving Average 166.71
Lower Bollinger Band 152.75
Price 151.58
Daily Stochastic Crossing 151.42
Monthly Trendline Support 123.70
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector Consumer Discretionary 6
Industry Homebuilding 65
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 176.22
High Date 10/03/2025
Low 149.69
Low Date 10/10/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 184.55
High Date 09/08/2025
Low 149.69
Low Date 10/10/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 198.71
Support 123.70
Low 110.40
Low Date 04/09/2025
High 184.55
High Date 09/08/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 199.85
High Date 09/19/2024
Low 110.40
Low Date 04/09/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 3.79
Low Date 11/21/2008
High 199.85
High Date 09/19/2024
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.