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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 9/5/2025 -
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D.R. Horton (DHI) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Overbought sectorRelative Strength Index, Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overboughtBroken trend resistance line
Daily :Broken uptrend resistance line - uptrend exhaustionWilliams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overboughtMACD bearish divergenceDaily  MACD line has moved above its signal lineThe price is above the upper Bollinger Band
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It was a first positive week for the D.R. Horton (DHI). During the week, the DHI gained 12.32 points, or 7.27%, and closed at 181.80 on Friday, September 5, 2025. It was the best weekly gain since July 25, 2025. DHI was trading at average weekly trading volume.

DHI is a member of Consumer Discretionary Sector. Consumer Discretionary is the most overbought sector. Sector/industry rotation is considered a proven strategy to beat the market. Use the following links to find overbought/oversold technical indicators by Sector or by Industry.

Long-term trend: [See DHI long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on September 19, 2024 at 199.85 and reached 110.40 on April 9, 2025. DHI lost 89.45 points, or 44.76%, in 28 weeks. The chart has formed a Falling Wedge chart pattern. The downtrend resistance line (71.85) is broken. Usually a broken resistance is considered to be a long-term bullish signal, but since daily indicators are overbought a short-term pull back is possible. DHI may retest the broken resistance line. It is considered to be a support line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See DHI medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on April 9, 2025 at 110.40 and reached 183.62 on September 5, 2025. DHI gained -73.22 points, or -66.32%, in 21 weeks. Price is near the trend high.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See DHI weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Relative Strength Index, Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with strongly overbought weekly overbought Relative Strength Index, Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic, Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since May 9, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current medium-term uptrend is strong. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See DHI short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on June 2, 2025 at 114.17 and reached 183.62 on September 5, 2025. DHI gained -69.45 points, or -60.83%, in 95 days. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. The uptrend resistance line (153.16) is broken, while daily and weekly technical indicators are overbought. Uptrend is exhausted and trend reversal is possible soon. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a short-term trend.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See DHI daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. Daily MACD has bearish divergence. Use the following links to access the MACD help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily MACD bearish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal.

During the last week, daily MACD line has moved above its signal line. Such crossover is considered a bullish signal.

The price has closed on Friday above the upper Bollinger Band. It is considered a bullish signal. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 72.51
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 10.10
Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 89.33
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 83.90
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 6.88 Bearish
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 91.84
Strong Overbought
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 4.60
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 93.49
Strong Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 85.26
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 1.07
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Daily Stochastic Crossing 182.02
Price 181.80
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 180.21
Upper Bollinger Band 178.43
20 Day Moving Average 166.91
Weekly Trendline Resistance 166.44
Parabolic System 165.86
Lower Bollinger Band 153.63
Weekly Trendline Support 153.16
50 Day Moving Average 150.63
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector Consumer Discretionary 12
Industry Homebuilding 117
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Low 129.11
Low Date 07/16/2025
High 183.62
High Date 09/05/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Channel
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 166.44
Support 153.16
Low 114.17
Low Date 06/02/2025
High 183.62
High Date 09/05/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 110.40
Low Date 04/09/2025
High 183.62
High Date 09/05/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Wedge
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 70.86
Support 71.85
High 199.85
High Date 09/19/2024
Low 110.40
Low Date 04/09/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 3.79
Low Date 11/21/2008
High 199.85
High Date 09/19/2024
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.