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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

Archive
- 1/9/2026 -
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D.R. Horton (DHI) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Overbought sectorTrend resistance at 158.78
Daily :20 Day Moving Average has crossed below the 50 Day Moving AverageDaily  MACD line has moved above its signal lineThe price has risen above the Parabolic SARThe price moved above the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands
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It was a first positive week after 5 consecutive negative weeks for the D.R. Horton (DHI). During the week, the DHI gained 11.56 points, or 7.93%, and closed at 157.28 on Friday, January 9, 2026. It was the best weekly gain since November 28, 2025. Weekly volume was 35% above average.

DHI is a member of Consumer Discretionary Sector. Consumer Discretionary is the second most overbought sector. Sector/industry rotation is considered a proven strategy to beat the market. Use the following links to find overbought/oversold technical indicators by Sector or by Industry.

Long-term trend: [See DHI long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on April 9, 2025 at 110.40 and reached 184.55 on September 8, 2025. DHI gained -74.15 points, or -67.16%, in 21 weeks. The chart has formed a Symmetric Triangle chart pattern. The price is near the trend resistance line (158.78). The resistance is usually stronger when technical indicators are overbought. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with price testing the trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See DHI medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term downtrend had started on September 8, 2025 at 184.55 and reached 134.74 on November 18, 2025. DHI lost 49.81 points, or 26.99%, in 10 weeks. The price is now at the 45.25% retracement level.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See DHI weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly technical indicators are neutral.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since October 17, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. It indicates that the current medium-term downtrend is getting weak. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See DHI short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on December 4, 2025 at 165.97 and reached 137.70 on January 8, 2026. DHI lost 28.27 points, or 17.03%, in 35 days. The price is now at the 69.26% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See DHI daily technical indicators chart]
Daily technical indicators are neutral.

During the last week, daily MACD line has moved above its signal line. Such crossover is considered a bullish signal.

During the last week, the price has risen above the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). A Parabolic SAR below the price is a bullish signal, and it indicates that momentum is likely to remain in the upward direction. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

During the last week, the price has moved above the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

During the last week, the 20 Day Moving Average has crossed below the 50 Day Moving Average. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 57.48
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 40.00
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 59.25
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 58.91
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -1.66
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 39.81
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 69.40
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 46.37
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 42.40
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 2.29
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Monthly Trendline Resistance 158.78
Upper Bollinger Band 158.28
Price 157.28
Daily Stochastic Crossing 149.37
50 Day Moving Average 148.77
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 148.57
20 Day Moving Average 148.57
Monthly Trendline Support 140.27
Parabolic System 138.98
Lower Bollinger Band 138.22
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector Consumer Discretionary 8
Industry Homebuilding 28
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 165.97
High Date 12/04/2025
Low 137.70
Low Date 01/08/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 184.55
High Date 09/08/2025
Low 134.74
Low Date 11/18/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Symmetric Triangle
Status Test Resistance
Resistance 158.78
Support 140.27
Low 110.40
Low Date 04/09/2025
High 184.55
High Date 09/08/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 199.85
High Date 09/19/2024
Low 110.40
Low Date 04/09/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 3.79
Low Date 11/21/2008
High 199.85
High Date 09/19/2024
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.