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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 10/2/2026 -
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Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Williams' Percentage Range is oversoldBroken trend support lineBroken trend support line
Daily :Lane's Stochastic is oversoldPrice is near the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level
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It was the negative week for the Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW). During the week, the VAW dropped -3.77 points, or -1.69%, and closed at 219.85 on Friday, October 2, 2026. Weekly volume was 50% above average.

Long-term trend: [See VAW long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on April 8, 2025 at 161.40 and reached 245.26 on February 25, 2026. VAW gained -83.86 points, or -51.96%, in 46 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The uptrend support line (236.02) is broken. Usually a broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal, but since daily indicators are oversold a short-term pull back is possible. VAW may retest the broken support line. It is considered to be a resistance line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See VAW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on March 20, 2026 at 210.14 and reached 242.38 on August 26, 2026. VAW gained -32.24 points, or -15.34%, in 22 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The uptrend support line (228.01) is broken. Usually a broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal, but since daily indicators are oversold a short-term pull back is possible. VAW may retest the broken support line. It is considered to be a resistance line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VAW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Williams' Percentage Range is oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with weekly oversold Williams' Percentage Range. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following link to access Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since September 4, 2026. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VAW short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on October 1, 2026 at 214.55 and reached 221.67 on October 2, 2026. VAW gained -7.12 points, or -3.32%, in 1 days. Price is near the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level. The Fibonacci retracement level is considered a support/resistance level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VAW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily oversold Lane's Stochastic. Use the following link to access Lane's Stochastic help.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since August 31, 2026. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 38.90
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 77.50
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 18.16
Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 26.51
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -2.98
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 38.91
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 82.30
Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 32.49
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 32.75
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 2.38 Bullish
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 243.69
Yearly Trendline Support 236.02
Upper Bollinger Band 234.10
50 Day Moving Average 230.48
Quarterly Trendline Support 228.01
20 Day Moving Average 225.08
Parabolic System 222.75
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 220.88
Price 219.85
Daily Stochastic Crossing 216.60
Lower Bollinger Band 215.53
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 214.55
Low Date 10/01/2026
High 221.67
High Date 10/02/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 214.55
Low Date 10/01/2026
High 221.67
High Date 10/02/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 242.38
High Date 08/26/2026
Low 214.55
Low Date 10/01/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Status Broken Support
Resistance 243.69
Support 228.01
Low 210.14
Low Date 03/20/2026
High 242.38
High Date 08/26/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Broken Support
Resistance 291.82
Support 236.02
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.