The Greedy Trader Weekly Analysis
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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 3/27/2026 -
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Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Weekly  MACD line has moved below its signal lineBroken trend resistance line
Daily :Stochastic has raised above the signal lineThe price has risen above the Parabolic SAR
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It was a first positive week after 3 consecutive negative weeks for the Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW). During the week, the VAW gained 8.39 points, or 3.97%, and closed at 219.76 on Friday, March 27, 2026. Weekly volume was -9% below average.

Long-term trend: [See VAW long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on April 8, 2025 at 161.40 and reached 245.26 on February 25, 2026. VAW gained -83.86 points, or -51.96%, in 46 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 206.12 and resistance is at 252.00. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See VAW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term downtrend had started on February 25, 2026 at 245.26 and reached 210.14 on March 20, 2026. VAW lost 35.12 points, or 14.32%, in 3 weeks. The chart has formed a Falling Wedge chart pattern. The downtrend resistance line (204.75) is broken. A broken support is considered to be a long-term bullish signal. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VAW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly technical indicators are neutral.

During the last week, weekly MACD line has moved below its signal line. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VAW short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on March 20, 2026 at 210.14 and reached 223.53 on March 26, 2026. VAW gained -13.39 points, or -6.37%, in 6 days. The price is now at the 28.16% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VAW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily technical indicators are neutral. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has rallied above the oversold signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bullish signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following link to access Lane's Stochastic help.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since February 18, 2026. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller.

During the last week, the price has risen above the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). A Parabolic SAR below the price is a bullish signal, and it indicates that momentum is likely to remain in the upward direction. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 38.97
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 71.90
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 54.62
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 40.56
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -3.67
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 56.77
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 46.60
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 48.63
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 51.84
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 7.85
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Yearly Trendline Resistance 252.00
Upper Bollinger Band 239.44
50 Day Moving Average 230.79
20 Day Moving Average 224.66
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 223.29
Price 219.76
Daily Stochastic Crossing 218.26
Parabolic System 211.00
Lower Bollinger Band 208.71
Monthly Trendline Resistance 208.35
Yearly Trendline Support 206.12
Monthly Trendline Support 204.75
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 210.14
Low Date 03/20/2026
High 223.53
High Date 03/26/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 210.14
Low Date 03/20/2026
High 223.53
High Date 03/26/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Wedge
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 208.35
Support 204.75
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Low 210.14
Low Date 03/20/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 190.29
Low Date 11/20/2025
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 252.00
Support 206.12
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.