The Greedy Trader Weekly Analysis
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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 4/10/2026 -
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Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Williams' Percentage Range is overbought
Daily :Relative Strength Index and Lane's Stochastic are overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly overboughtPrice has crossed above the 50 Day Moving Average
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It was a third positive week after 3 consecutive negative weeks for the Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW). During the week, the VAW gained 8.21 points, or 3.60%, and closed at 236.20 on Friday, April 10, 2026. Weekly volume was 21% above average.

Long-term trend: [See VAW long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on April 8, 2025 at 161.40 and reached 245.26 on February 25, 2026. VAW gained -83.86 points, or -51.96%, in 46 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 207.77 and resistance is at 254.76. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See VAW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term downtrend had started on February 25, 2026 at 245.26 and reached 210.14 on March 20, 2026. VAW lost 35.12 points, or 14.32%, in 3 weeks. The price is now at the 74.20% retracement level.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VAW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Williams' Percentage Range is overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following link to access Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since March 20, 2026. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. It indicates that the current medium-term downtrend is getting weak. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VAW short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on March 20, 2026 at 210.14 and reached 237.34 on April 10, 2026. VAW gained -27.20 points, or -12.94%, in 21 days. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. The trend support level is at 229.60 and resistance is at 237.12. A Rising Channel represents price movement contained between parallel lower (support) and upper (resistance) trend lines. Trading Channeling stocks is one of the most reliable and accurate trading techniques that provide traders with precise entry and exit points as well as stop-losses and take-profit recommendations. Use the following link to access a Rising Channel chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Rising Channel pattern in a short-term trend.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VAW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Relative Strength Index and Lane's Stochastic are overbought while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Relative Strength Index and Lane's Stochastic or strongly overbought daily Williams' Percentage Range. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Relative Strength Index help.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since March 30, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is relatively high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current short-term uptrend is strong.

During the last week, the price has advanced above the 50 Day Moving Average. While the medium-term trend is down and daily technical indicators are overbought, the 50 Day Moving Average is considered a resistance level. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 86.89
Overbought
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 3.90
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 88.62
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 90.55
Strong Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.89
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 62.27
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 16.30
Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 36.88
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 58.22
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 7.45
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Yearly Trendline Resistance 254.76
Upper Bollinger Band 240.65
Weekly Trendline Resistance 237.12
Price 236.20
Daily Stochastic Crossing 235.79
50 Day Moving Average 230.95
Weekly Trendline Support 229.60
Parabolic System 226.29
20 Day Moving Average 223.72
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 222.31
Lower Bollinger Band 214.52
Yearly Trendline Support 207.77
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 224.79
Low Date 04/07/2026
High 237.34
High Date 04/10/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Channel
Status Valid
Resistance 237.12
Support 229.60
Low 210.14
Low Date 03/20/2026
High 237.34
High Date 04/10/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Low 210.14
Low Date 03/20/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 190.29
Low Date 11/20/2025
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 254.76
Support 207.77
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.