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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

Archive
- 6/20/2025 -
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Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Lane's Stochastic is strongly overboughtTrend resistance at 188.52Broken trend support line
Daily :Lane's Stochastic is oversoldThe price has declined below the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands
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It was the negative week for the Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW). During the week, the VAW dropped -1.96 points, or -1.02%, and closed at 190.68 on Friday, June 20, 2025. Weekly volume was -33% below average.

Long-term trend: [See VAW long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on October 18, 2024 at 215.82 and reached 161.40 on April 8, 2025. VAW lost 54.42 points, or 25.22%, in 24 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Descending Wedge chart pattern. The price is near the trend resistance line (188.52). The resistance is usually stronger when technical indicators are overbought. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with price testing the trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See VAW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on April 8, 2025 at 161.40 and reached 196.92 on June 9, 2025. VAW gained -35.52 points, or -22.01%, in 8 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The uptrend support line (202.31) is broken. Usually a broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal, but since daily indicators are oversold a short-term pull back is possible. VAW may retest the broken support line. It is considered to be a resistance line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VAW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Lane's Stochastic is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with strongly overbought weekly overbought Lane's Stochastic. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following link to access Lane's Stochastic help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since May 16, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VAW short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on June 9, 2025 at 196.92 and reached 190.48 on June 20, 2025. VAW lost 6.44 points, or 3.27%, in 11 days. Price is near the trend low.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VAW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily oversold Lane's Stochastic.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since June 12, 2025. This is an indication that the short-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low, but getting bigger. It indicates that the current short-term downtrend is getting stronger.

During the last week, the price has declined below the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50.22
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 44.90
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 19.03
Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 41.47
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 1.71
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50.26
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 23.80
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 91.86
Strong Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 72.61
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -2.99
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Monthly Trendline Support 202.31
Monthly Trendline Resistance 198.46
Upper Bollinger Band 196.50
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 195.48
Parabolic System 194.53
20 Day Moving Average 192.80
Daily Stochastic Crossing 191.43
Price 190.68
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 188.52
Lower Bollinger Band 188.13
50 Day Moving Average 187.68
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 195.14
High Date 06/16/2025
Low 190.48
Low Date 06/20/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 196.92
High Date 06/09/2025
Low 190.48
Low Date 06/20/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Status Broken Support
Resistance 198.46
Support 202.31
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
High 196.92
High Date 06/09/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Broadening Descending Wedge
Status Test Resistance
Resistance 188.52
Support 141.40
High 215.82
High Date 10/18/2024
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 146.72
Low Date 09/29/2022
High 215.82
High Date 10/18/2024
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.