The Greedy Trader Weekly Analysis
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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 5/22/2026 -
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Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken trend support line
Daily :A Parabolic SAR indicator is below and near the pricePrice is near the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement levelPrice is close to the 50 Day Moving Average
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It was a first positive week for the Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW). During the week, the VAW climbed 0.84 points, or 0.37%, and closed at 227.78 on Friday, May 22, 2026. Weekly volume was -16% below average.

Long-term trend: [See VAW long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on April 8, 2025 at 161.40 and reached 245.26 on February 25, 2026. VAW gained -83.86 points, or -51.96%, in 46 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 213.29 and resistance is at 263.95. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See VAW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on March 20, 2026 at 210.14 and reached 238.54 on May 7, 2026. VAW gained -28.40 points, or -13.51%, in 6 weeks. The chart has formed a Ascending Triangle chart pattern. The uptrend support line (235.95) is broken. A broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VAW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly technical indicators are neutral.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since March 20, 2026. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low, but getting bigger. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VAW short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on May 7, 2026 at 238.54 and reached 220.68 on May 19, 2026. VAW lost 17.86 points, or 7.49%, in 12 days. Price is near the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level. The Fibonacci retracement level is considered a support/resistance level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VAW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily technical indicators are neutral.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since May 14, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is down.

A Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal) indicator (229.28) comes close to the price (227.78). It indicates that the trend is getting weaker. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

Price is close to the 50 Day Moving Average. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 49.50
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 59.70
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 22.59
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 37.47
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.50
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 40.68
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 46.10
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 69.82
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 56.19
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 6.79
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Yearly Trendline Resistance 263.95
Monthly Trendline Resistance 238.65
Upper Bollinger Band 238.40
Monthly Trendline Support 235.95
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 232.52
20 Day Moving Average 230.97
Parabolic System 229.28
50 Day Moving Average 228.97
Price 227.78
Daily Stochastic Crossing 225.18
Lower Bollinger Band 221.71
Yearly Trendline Support 213.29
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 220.68
Low Date 05/19/2026
High 228.58
High Date 05/22/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 238.54
High Date 05/07/2026
Low 220.68
Low Date 05/19/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Ascending Triangle
Status Broken Support
Resistance 238.65
Support 235.95
Low 210.14
Low Date 03/20/2026
High 238.54
High Date 05/07/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Low 210.14
Low Date 03/20/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 263.95
Support 213.29
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.