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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 6/26/2026 -
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Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :
Daily :Daily  MACD line has moved below its signal lineThe price has fallen below the Parabolic SARThe price is close to the moving average in the center of the Bollinger BandsPrice is close to the 50 Day Moving Average
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It was the negative week for the Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW). During the week, the VAW gave back -2.11 points, or -0.90%, and closed at 232.13 on Friday, June 26, 2026. VAW was trading at average weekly trading volume.

Long-term trend: [See VAW long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on November 20, 2025 at 190.29 and reached 245.26 on February 25, 2026. VAW gained -54.97 points, or -28.89%, in 13 weeks. The chart has formed a Symmetric Triangle chart pattern. The trend support level is at 226.56 and resistance is at 233.97. A Symmetric Triangle pattern represents the area of indecision, where the movement direction is questioned. Chart pattern analysis usually considers a symmetric triangle chart pattern as a continuation formation which resolves in the direction of larger trend, but it also may mark the trend reversal. Use the following link to access a Symmetric Triangle chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Symmetric Triangle pattern in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See VAW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on May 19, 2026 at 220.68 and reached 240.89 on June 17, 2026. VAW gained -20.21 points, or -9.16%, in 4 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 225.08 and resistance is at 243.87. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VAW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly technical indicators are neutral.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since March 20, 2026. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low, but getting bigger. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VAW short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on June 17, 2026 at 240.89 and reached 228.00 on June 24, 2026. VAW lost 12.89 points, or 5.35%, in 7 days. The price is now at the 32.04% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VAW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily technical indicators are neutral.

During the last week, daily MACD line has moved below its signal line. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal.

During the last week, the price has fallen below the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). A Parabolic SAR above the price is a bearish signal, and it indicates that momentum is likely to remain in the downward direction. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

The price is close to the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Price is close to the 50 Day Moving Average. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 55.51
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 49.90
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 39.41
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 48.33
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.43
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 68.05
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 37.60
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 62.09
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 59.00
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 5.61
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Weekly Trendline Resistance 243.87
Upper Bollinger Band 239.25
Parabolic System 238.53
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 233.97
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 232.91
Daily Stochastic Crossing 232.39
Price 232.13
50 Day Moving Average 232.10
20 Day Moving Average 232.04
Quarterly Trendline Support 226.56
Weekly Trendline Support 225.08
Lower Bollinger Band 224.81
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 240.89
High Date 06/17/2026
Low 228.00
Low Date 06/24/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 243.87
Support 225.08
Low 220.68
Low Date 05/19/2026
High 240.89
High Date 06/17/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 238.54
High Date 05/07/2026
Low 220.68
Low Date 05/19/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Symmetric Triangle
Status Valid
Resistance 233.97
Support 226.56
Low 190.29
Low Date 11/20/2025
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.