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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 8/21/2026 -
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Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Williams' Percentage Range is overboughtBroken trend resistance line
Daily :Williams' Percentage Range is overboughtMACD bearish divergence
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It was a first positive week for the Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW). During the week, the VAW gained 4.19 points, or 1.78%, and closed at 239.67 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Weekly volume was -35% below average.

Long-term trend: [See VAW long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on April 8, 2025 at 161.40 and reached 245.26 on February 25, 2026. VAW gained -83.86 points, or -51.96%, in 46 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 224.70 and resistance is at 282.94. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See VAW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term downtrend had started on February 25, 2026 at 245.26 and reached 210.14 on March 20, 2026. VAW lost 35.12 points, or 14.32%, in 3 weeks. The chart has formed a Symmetric Triangle chart pattern. The downtrend resistance line (224.17) is broken. Usually a broken resistance is considered to be a long-term bullish signal, but since daily indicators are overbought a short-term pull back is possible. VAW may retest the broken resistance line. It is considered to be a support line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VAW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Williams' Percentage Range is overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following link to access Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since March 20, 2026. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. It indicates that the current medium-term downtrend is getting weak. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VAW short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on August 18, 2026 at 231.53 and reached 240.11 on August 21, 2026. VAW gained -8.58 points, or -3.71%, in 3 days. The price is now at the 5.13% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VAW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Williams' Percentage Range is overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Williams' Percentage Range. Daily MACD has bearish divergence. Use the following links to access the MACD help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily MACD bearish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since July 23, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. It indicates that the current short-term uptrend is getting weak.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 69.30
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 11.80
Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 41.43
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 66.30
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 1.79 Bearish
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 61.38
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 14.70
Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 50.67
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 62.86
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 3.16
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Yearly Trendline Resistance 282.94
Upper Bollinger Band 241.79
Price 239.67
Daily Stochastic Crossing 235.37
20 Day Moving Average 232.71
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 232.29
Parabolic System 231.30
50 Day Moving Average 230.45
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 228.73
Yearly Trendline Support 224.70
Lower Bollinger Band 224.35
Quarterly Trendline Support 224.17
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 231.53
Low Date 08/18/2026
High 240.11
High Date 08/21/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 231.53
Low Date 08/18/2026
High 240.11
High Date 08/21/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 221.00
Low Date 07/20/2026
High 240.11
High Date 08/21/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Symmetric Triangle
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 228.73
Support 224.17
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Low 210.14
Low Date 03/20/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 282.94
Support 224.70
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.