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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 10/10/2025 -
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Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken trend support lineBroken trend resistance line
Daily :The price has fallen below the Parabolic SARThe price is below the lower Bollinger BandPrice has crossed below the 50 Day Moving AverageLane's Stochastic and MACD bullish divergence
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It was the negative week for the Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW). During the week, the VAW dropped -6.47 points, or -3.15%, and closed at 199.04 on Friday, October 10, 2025. It was the worst weekly loss since August 1, 2025. Weekly volume was -41% below average.

Long-term trend: [See VAW long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on October 18, 2024 at 215.82 and reached 161.40 on April 8, 2025. VAW lost 54.42 points, or 25.22%, in 24 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Descending Wedge chart pattern. The downtrend resistance line (110.20) is broken. A broken support is considered to be a long-term bullish signal. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See VAW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on April 8, 2025 at 161.40 and reached 210.34 on September 11, 2025. VAW gained -48.94 points, or -30.32%, in 22 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The uptrend support line (210.27) is broken. A broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VAW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly technical indicators are neutral.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since May 16, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. It indicates that the current medium-term uptrend is getting weak. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VAW short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on October 9, 2025 at 207.21 and reached 199.04 on October 10, 2025. VAW lost 8.17 points, or 3.94%, in 1 days. Price is near the trend low.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VAW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily technical indicators are neutral. Daily Lane's Stochastic and MACD have bullish divergence. Use the following links to access the Lane's Stochastic and MACD help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily Lane's Stochastic and MACD bullish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following link to access Lane's Stochastic help.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since October 8, 2025. This is an indication that the short-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low, but getting bigger. It indicates that the current short-term downtrend is getting stronger.

During the last week, the price has fallen below the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). A Parabolic SAR above the price is a bearish signal, and it indicates that momentum is likely to remain in the downward direction. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

The price has closed on Friday below the lower Bollinger Band. It is considered a bearish signal. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

During the last week, the price has crossed below the 50 Day Moving Average. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 34.62
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 59.10
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 48.83
Bullish
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 41.46
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.19 Bullish
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 46.49
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 30.30
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 69.77
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 63.07
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 2.75
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 213.51
Quarterly Trendline Support 210.27
Upper Bollinger Band 208.62
Parabolic System 207.42
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 206.41
20 Day Moving Average 204.49
50 Day Moving Average 204.23
Daily Stochastic Crossing 202.39
Lower Bollinger Band 199.84
Price 199.04
Yearly Trendline Resistance 175.70
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 207.21
High Date 10/09/2025
Low 199.04
Low Date 10/10/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 207.21
High Date 10/09/2025
Low 199.04
Low Date 10/10/2025
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 210.34
High Date 09/11/2025
Low 199.04
Low Date 10/10/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Status Broken Support
Resistance 213.51
Support 210.27
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
High 210.34
High Date 09/11/2025
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Broadening Descending Wedge
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 175.70
Support 110.20
High 215.82
High Date 10/18/2024
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.