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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 3/13/2026 -
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Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Stochastic signal line moved below overbought areaBroken trend support line
Daily :Relative Strength Index is oversold
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It was the negative week for the Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW). During the week, the VAW dropped -3.97 points, or -1.75%, and closed at 222.36 on Friday, March 13, 2026. Weekly volume was 19% above average.

Long-term trend: [See VAW long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on April 8, 2025 at 161.40 and reached 245.26 on February 25, 2026. VAW gained -83.86 points, or -51.96%, in 46 weeks. The price is now at the 27.31% retracement level.

Medium-term trend: [See VAW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on November 20, 2025 at 190.29 and reached 245.26 on February 25, 2026. VAW gained -54.97 points, or -28.89%, in 13 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. The uptrend support line (246.81) is broken. Usually a broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal, but since daily indicators are oversold a short-term pull back is possible. VAW may retest the broken support line. It is considered to be a resistance line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VAW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly technical indicators are neutral. During the last week, weekly Lane's Stochastic signal line (%D) has moved below overbought area. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following link to access Lane's Stochastic help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since December 12, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VAW short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on February 25, 2026 at 245.26 and reached 219.85 on March 9, 2026. VAW lost 25.41 points, or 10.36%, in 12 days. The price is now at the 9.88% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VAW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Relative Strength Index is oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily oversold Relative Strength Index. Use the following link to access Relative Strength Index help.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since February 18, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current short-term downtrend is strong.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 17.80
Oversold
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 75.30
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 24.48
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 22.32
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.47
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 63.37
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 34.80
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 78.39
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 66.55
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 7.78
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 255.54
Quarterly Trendline Support 246.81
Upper Bollinger Band 246.81
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 238.67
20 Day Moving Average 235.97
Parabolic System 230.75
50 Day Moving Average 230.58
Daily Stochastic Crossing 224.20
Price 222.36
Lower Bollinger Band 217.67
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Low 219.85
Low Date 03/09/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Low 219.85
Low Date 03/09/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Low 219.85
Low Date 03/09/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Channel
Status Broken Support
Resistance 255.54
Support 246.81
Low 190.29
Low Date 11/20/2025
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.