The Greedy Trader Weekly Analysis
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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

Archive
- 5/8/2026 -
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Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Price is near the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level
Daily :The price has risen above the Parabolic SARBullish Homing Pigeon CandlestickThe price moved above the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands
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It was a first positive week after 3 consecutive negative weeks for the Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW). During the week, the VAW climbed 1.40 points, or 0.60%, and closed at 233.25 on Friday, May 8, 2026. VAW was trading at average weekly trading volume.

Long-term trend: [See VAW long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on April 8, 2025 at 161.40 and reached 245.26 on February 25, 2026. VAW gained -83.86 points, or -51.96%, in 46 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 215.62 and resistance is at 260.88. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See VAW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on November 20, 2025 at 190.29 and reached 245.26 on February 25, 2026. VAW gained -54.97 points, or -28.89%, in 13 weeks. Price is near the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level. The Fibonacci retracement level is considered a support/resistance level.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VAW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly technical indicators are neutral.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since March 20, 2026. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low, but getting bigger. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VAW short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on May 4, 2026 at 227.74 and reached 238.54 on May 7, 2026. VAW gained -10.80 points, or -4.74%, in 3 days. The price is now at the 48.98% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VAW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily technical indicators are neutral.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since April 27, 2026. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller.

During the last week, the price has risen above the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). A Parabolic SAR below the price is a bullish signal, and it indicates that momentum is likely to remain in the upward direction. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

During the last week, the price has moved above the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Candlestick pattern: [See VAW candlestick chart pattern]
On Friday the chart has formed a Bullish Homing Pigeon Candlestick pattern. A Bullish Homing Pigeon pattern occurs in a downtrend. Market usually has a tendency to enter into a congestion phase following a Homing Pigeon pattern.The reliability of the Bullish Homing Pigeon is medium. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks that had a Bullish Homing Pigeon Candlestick pattern during the last week.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 43.83
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 42.10
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 46.12
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 49.27
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 1.00
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 54.95
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 28.30
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 69.26
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 62.41
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 7.13
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Yearly Trendline Resistance 260.88
Upper Bollinger Band 237.27
20 Day Moving Average 233.89
Daily Stochastic Crossing 233.84
Price 233.25
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 230.32
50 Day Moving Average 229.54
Parabolic System 228.38
Lower Bollinger Band 227.50
Yearly Trendline Support 215.62
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 227.74
Low Date 05/04/2026
High 238.54
High Date 05/07/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 227.74
Low Date 05/04/2026
High 238.54
High Date 05/07/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 210.14
Low Date 03/20/2026
High 238.54
High Date 05/07/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 190.29
Low Date 11/20/2025
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 260.88
Support 215.62
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.