The Greedy Trader Weekly Analysis
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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

Archive
- 11/7/2025 -
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Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Williams' Percentage Range is oversoldBroken trend support line
Daily :Lane's Stochastic oversoldWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly oversoldStochastic has raised above the signal lineA Parabolic SAR indicator is below and near the price
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It was the negative week for the Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW). During the week, the VAW gave back -0.55 points, or -0.28%, and closed at 194.59 on Friday, November 7, 2025. VAW was trading at average weekly trading volume.

Long-term trend: [See VAW long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on April 8, 2025 at 161.40 and reached 210.34 on September 11, 2025. VAW gained -48.94 points, or -30.32%, in 22 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The uptrend support line (217.90) is broken. Usually a broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal, but since daily indicators are oversold a short-term pull back is possible. VAW may retest the broken support line. It is considered to be a resistance line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See VAW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term downtrend had started on September 11, 2025 at 210.34 and reached 191.12 on November 4, 2025. VAW lost 19.22 points, or 9.14%, in 7 weeks. The price is now at the 18.05% retracement level.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VAW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Williams' Percentage Range is oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with weekly oversold Williams' Percentage Range. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following link to access Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since October 17, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is down. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VAW short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on November 4, 2025 at 191.12 and reached 194.87 on November 6, 2025. VAW gained -3.75 points, or -1.96%, in 2 days. The price is now at the 7.47% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VAW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is oversold while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold daily Lane's Stochastic or strongly oversold daily Williams' Percentage Range. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has rallied above the oversold signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bullish signal. Use the following link to access Lane's Stochastic help.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since October 8, 2025.

A Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal) indicator (195.82) comes close to the price (194.59). It indicates that the trend is getting weaker. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 25.59
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 92.50
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 15.72
Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 16.28
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -2.10
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 51.62
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 88.80
Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 29.18
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 28.30
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 2.48
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Quarterly Trendline Support 217.90
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 216.53
Upper Bollinger Band 207.21
50 Day Moving Average 203.08
20 Day Moving Average 199.58
Parabolic System 195.82
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 195.66
Price 194.59
Daily Stochastic Crossing 192.82
Lower Bollinger Band 189.69
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 191.12
Low Date 11/04/2025
High 194.87
High Date 11/06/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 207.21
High Date 10/09/2025
Low 191.12
Low Date 11/04/2025
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 210.34
High Date 09/11/2025
Low 191.12
Low Date 11/04/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Status Broken Support
Resistance 216.53
Support 217.90
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
High 210.34
High Date 09/11/2025
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 215.82
High Date 10/18/2024
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.