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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 9/18/2026 -
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Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken trend support lineBroken trend support line
Daily :Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are oversold
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It was the negative week for the Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW). During the week, the VAW dropped -4.96 points, or -2.17%, and closed at 223.49 on Friday, September 18, 2026. Weekly volume was 211% above average.

Long-term trend: [See VAW long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on April 8, 2025 at 161.40 and reached 245.26 on February 25, 2026. VAW gained -83.86 points, or -51.96%, in 46 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The uptrend support line (234.00) is broken. Usually a broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal, but since daily indicators are oversold a short-term pull back is possible. VAW may retest the broken support line. It is considered to be a resistance line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See VAW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on July 20, 2026 at 221.00 and reached 242.38 on August 26, 2026. VAW gained -21.38 points, or -9.67%, in 5 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The uptrend support line (242.57) is broken. Usually a broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal, but since daily indicators are oversold a short-term pull back is possible. VAW may retest the broken support line. It is considered to be a resistance line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VAW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly technical indicators are neutral.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since September 4, 2026. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low, but getting bigger. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VAW short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on August 26, 2026 at 242.38 and reached 222.51 on September 16, 2026. VAW lost 19.87 points, or 8.20%, in 21 days. Price is near the trend low.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VAW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily oversold Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since August 31, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is down.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 24.08
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 83.20
Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 12.88
Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 17.92
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.99
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 39.31
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 76.20
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 59.57
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 43.66
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 3.03
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Monthly Trendline Resistance 246.56
Monthly Trendline Support 242.57
Upper Bollinger Band 242.16
Yearly Trendline Support 234.00
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 233.56
20 Day Moving Average 233.18
50 Day Moving Average 231.02
Parabolic System 228.34
Daily Stochastic Crossing 224.35
Price 223.49
Lower Bollinger Band 218.94
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 227.81
High Date 09/17/2026
Low 223.01
Low Date 09/18/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 242.38
High Date 08/26/2026
Low 222.51
Low Date 09/16/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Status Broken Support
Resistance 246.56
Support 242.57
Low 221.00
Low Date 07/20/2026
High 242.38
High Date 08/26/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 210.14
Low Date 03/20/2026
High 242.38
High Date 08/26/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Broken Support
Resistance 288.76
Support 234.00
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
High 245.26
High Date 02/25/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.