The Greedy Trader Weekly Analysis
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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 2/20/2026 -
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Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range are overboughtLane's Stochastic is strongly overboughtRelative Strength Index bearish divergence
Daily :Stochastic signal line moved below overbought areaDaily  MACD line has moved below its signal linePrice is near the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level
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It was the negative week for the Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW). During the week, the VAW gave back -0.08 points, or -0.03%, and closed at 241.37 on Friday, February 20, 2026. Weekly volume was 8% above average.

Long-term trend: [See VAW long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on April 8, 2025 at 161.40 and reached 245.18 on February 12, 2026. VAW gained -83.78 points, or -51.91%, in 44 weeks. Price is near the trend high.

Medium-term trend: [See VAW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on November 20, 2025 at 190.29 and reached 245.18 on February 12, 2026. VAW gained -54.89 points, or -28.85%, in 12 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. The trend support level is at 235.66 and resistance is at 245.08. A Rising Channel represents price movement contained between parallel lower (support) and upper (resistance) trend lines. Trading Channeling stocks is one of the most reliable and accurate trading techniques that provide traders with precise entry and exit points as well as stop-losses and take-profit recommendations. Use the following link to access a Rising Channel chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Rising Channel pattern in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VAW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range are overbought while Lane's Stochastic is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range or strongly overbought weekly Lane's Stochastic. Weekly Relative Strength Index has bearish divergence. Use the following links to access the Relative Strength Index help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with weekly Relative Strength Index bearish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic, Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since December 12, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current medium-term uptrend is strong. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VAW short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on February 17, 2026 at 235.79 and reached 242.95 on February 18, 2026. VAW gained -7.16 points, or -3.04%, in 1 days. Price is near the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level. The Fibonacci retracement level is considered a support/resistance level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VAW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily technical indicators are neutral. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic signal line (%D) has moved below overbought area. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal.

During the last week, daily MACD line has moved below its signal line. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 68.05
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 26.60
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 68.80
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 70.10
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 5.62
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 84.84
Overbought Bearish
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 10.70
Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 92.13
Strong Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 83.49
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 5.55
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 245.55
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 245.08
Daily Stochastic Crossing 242.06
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 241.84
Price 241.37
Parabolic System 238.35
Quarterly Trendline Support 235.66
20 Day Moving Average 235.09
Lower Bollinger Band 223.86
50 Day Moving Average 222.47
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 235.79
Low Date 02/17/2026
High 242.95
High Date 02/18/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 235.79
Low Date 02/17/2026
High 242.95
High Date 02/18/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 229.06
Low Date 02/05/2026
High 245.18
High Date 02/12/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Channel
Status Valid
Resistance 245.08
Support 235.66
Low 190.29
Low Date 11/20/2025
High 245.18
High Date 02/12/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 161.40
Low Date 04/08/2025
High 245.18
High Date 02/12/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.