The Greedy Trader Weekly Analysis
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Uptrend Exhaustion

Uptrend Exhaustion stock alert presents a technical analysis stock market picking technique based on combination of technical indicators, stock trend analysis, trend following indicators and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. Uptrend Exhaustion alert indicates that long term uptrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Uptrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for overvalued stocks.

The strategy is based on selling (or taking a short) position on anticipation of uptrend reversal.

Uptrend Exhaustion

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- 12/13/2024 -
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Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken uptrend resistance line - uptrend exhaustionRelative Strength Index is overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought
Daily :Relative Strength Index and Lane's Stochastic are overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly overboughtLane's Stochastic and MACD bearish divergence
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It was a fourth consecutive positive week for the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR). During the week, the VCR climbed 3.19 points, or 0.81%, and closed at 395.00 on Friday, December 13, 2024. Weekly volume was -23% below average.

Long-term trend: [See VCR long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on December 28, 2022 at 213.73 and reached 397.70 on December 12, 2024. VCR gained -183.97 points, or -86.08%, in 102 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. The uptrend resistance line (289.19) is broken, while daily and weekly technical indicators are overbought. Uptrend is exhausted and trend reversal is possible soon. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See VCR medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on October 23, 2024 at 326.99 and reached 397.70 on December 12, 2024. VCR gained -70.71 points, or -21.62%, in 7 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 385.40 and resistance is at 437.66. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VCR weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Relative Strength Index is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Relative Strength Index or strongly overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic, Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since September 13, 2024. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current medium-term uptrend is strong. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VCR short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on November 19, 2024 at 357.80 and reached 397.70 on December 12, 2024. VCR gained -39.90 points, or -11.15%, in 23 days. The price is now at the 6.77% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VCR daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Relative Strength Index and Lane's Stochastic are overbought while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Relative Strength Index and Lane's Stochastic or strongly overbought daily Williams' Percentage Range. Daily Lane's Stochastic and MACD have bearish divergence. Use the following links to access the Lane's Stochastic and MACD help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily Lane's Stochastic and MACD bearish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since November 4, 2024. This is an indication that the short-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. It indicates that the current short-term uptrend is getting weak.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 81.64
Overbought
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 8.00
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 83.49
Overbought Bearish
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 85.70
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 10.29 Bearish
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 88.31
Overbought
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 2.80
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 91.22
Strong Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 84.89
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 12.24
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Monthly Trendline Resistance 437.66
Upper Bollinger Band 403.31
Daily Stochastic Crossing 395.14
Price 395.00
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 391.45
Monthly Trendline Support 385.40
Parabolic System 385.27
20 Day Moving Average 377.95
50 Day Moving Average 356.80
Lower Bollinger Band 354.82
Yearly Trendline Resistance 347.09
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 357.80
Low Date 11/19/2024
High 397.70
High Date 12/12/2024
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 357.80
Low Date 11/19/2024
High 397.70
High Date 12/12/2024
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 437.66
Support 385.40
Low 326.99
Low Date 10/23/2024
High 397.70
High Date 12/12/2024
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 284.84
Low Date 08/05/2024
High 397.70
High Date 12/12/2024
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Channel
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 347.09
Support 289.19
Low 213.73
Low Date 12/28/2022
High 397.70
High Date 12/12/2024
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.