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Uptrend Exhaustion

Uptrend Exhaustion stock alert presents a technical analysis stock market picking technique based on combination of technical indicators, stock trend analysis, trend following indicators and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. Uptrend Exhaustion alert indicates that long term uptrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Uptrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for overvalued stocks.

The strategy is based on selling (or taking a short) position on anticipation of uptrend reversal.

Uptrend Exhaustion

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- 12/13/2024 -
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Vanguard Financials ETF (VFH) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overboughtBroken trend resistance lineBroken trend resistance line
Daily :Lane's Stochastic is oversoldThe price has declined below the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands
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It was the negative week for the Vanguard Financials ETF (VFH). During the week, the VFH dropped -2.47 points, or -1.99%, and closed at 121.80 on Friday, December 13, 2024. It was the worst weekly loss since October 25, 2024. VFH was trading at average weekly trading volume.

Long-term trend: [See VFH long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on October 13, 2022 at 72.96 and reached 126.85 on November 27, 2024. VFH gained -53.89 points, or -73.86%, in 110 weeks. The chart has formed a Symmetric Triangle chart pattern. The uptrend resistance line (78.57) is broken. Usually a broken resistance is considered to be a long-term bullish signal, although a short-term pull back is possible. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See VFH medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on March 24, 2023 at 73.25 and reached 126.85 on November 27, 2024. VFH gained -53.60 points, or -73.17%, in 87 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The uptrend resistance line (118.02) is broken. Usually a broken resistance is considered to be a long-term bullish signal, although a short-term pull back is possible. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VFH weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since August 16, 2024. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is relatively high, but getting smaller. It indicates that the current medium-term uptrend is still strong, and momentum is beginning to wane. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VFH short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on June 14, 2024 at 97.83 and reached 126.85 on November 27, 2024. VFH gained -29.02 points, or -29.66%, in 166 days. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 100.20 and resistance is at 129.33. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a short-term trend.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VFH daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily strongly oversold Lane's Stochastic.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since December 2, 2024.

During the last week, the price has declined below the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 28.81
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 73.90
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 3.77
Strong Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 19.56
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 1.73
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 73.49
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 15.00
Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 88.80
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 78.10
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 4.99
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Weekly Trendline Resistance 129.33
Upper Bollinger Band 125.53
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 125.02
Parabolic System 124.79
20 Day Moving Average 123.71
Daily Stochastic Crossing 121.84
Price 121.80
Lower Bollinger Band 119.59
50 Day Moving Average 118.69
Monthly Trendline Support 118.02
Quarterly Trendline Support 118.02
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 116.22
Monthly Trendline Resistance 104.91
Weekly Trendline Support 100.20
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 126.85
High Date 11/27/2024
Low 121.70
Low Date 12/13/2024
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 129.33
Support 100.20
Low 97.83
Low Date 06/14/2024
High 126.85
High Date 11/27/2024
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Ascending Triangle
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 104.91
Support 118.02
Low 75.72
Low Date 10/27/2023
High 126.85
High Date 11/27/2024
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 116.22
Support 118.02
Low 73.25
Low Date 03/24/2023
High 126.85
High Date 11/27/2024
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Symmetric Triangle
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 75.34
Support 78.57
Low 72.96
Low Date 10/13/2022
High 126.85
High Date 11/27/2024
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.