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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 9/25/2026 -
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Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Lane's Stochastic oversoldWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly oversoldBroken trend support line
Daily :Broken trend support line - Downtrend exhaustionRelative Strength Index oversoldWilliams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly oversoldStochastic has raised above the signal line
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It was the negative week for the Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU). During the week, the VPU dropped -6.50 points, or -3.65%, and closed at 171.48 on Friday, September 25, 2026. Weekly volume was 78% above average.

Long-term trend: [See VPU long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on March 9, 2009 at 46.64 and reached 206.10 on February 27, 2026. VPU gained -159.46 points, or -341.90%, in 885 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 130.70 and resistance is at 206.26. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See VPU medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on October 6, 2023 at 118.81 and reached 206.10 on February 27, 2026. VPU gained -87.29 points, or -73.47%, in 125 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. The uptrend support line (192.95) is broken. Usually a broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal, but since daily indicators are oversold a short-term pull back is possible. VPU may retest the broken support line. It is considered to be a resistance line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VPU weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Lane's Stochastic is oversold while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold weekly Lane's Stochastic or strongly oversold weekly Williams' Percentage Range. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since April 24, 2026. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high and getting bigger. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VPU short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on July 24, 2026 at 201.09 and reached 169.78 on September 25, 2026. VPU lost 31.31 points, or 15.57%, in 63 days. The chart has formed a Falling Channel chart pattern. The downtrend support line (176.20) is broken, while daily and weekly technical indicators are oversold. Downtrend is exhausted and trend reversal is possible soon. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a short-term trend.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VPU daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Relative Strength Index is oversold while Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold daily Relative Strength Index or strongly oversold daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has rallied above the oversold signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bullish signal. Use the following link to access Relative Strength Index help.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since September 11, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current short-term downtrend is strong.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 17.52
Oversold
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 93.90
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 3.96
Strong Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 9.19
Strong Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -3.23
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 28.10
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 96.40
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 10.21
Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 16.98
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -1.13
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Monthly Trendline Resistance 198.97
Quarterly Trendline Support 192.95
Upper Bollinger Band 189.98
50 Day Moving Average 187.15
Weekly Trendline Resistance 186.42
20 Day Moving Average 180.80
Monthly Trendline Support 179.24
Parabolic System 176.51
Weekly Trendline Support 176.20
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 172.04
Price 171.48
Daily Stochastic Crossing 170.30
Lower Bollinger Band 170.00
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 189.10
High Date 09/08/2026
Low 169.78
Low Date 09/25/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Channel
Status Broken Support
Resistance 186.42
Support 176.20
High 201.09
High Date 07/24/2026
Low 169.78
Low Date 09/25/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Broadening Descending Wedge
Status Broken Support
Resistance 198.97
Support 179.24
High 206.10
High Date 02/27/2026
Low 169.78
Low Date 09/25/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Channel
Status Broken Support
Resistance 223.28
Support 192.95
Low 118.81
Low Date 10/06/2023
High 206.10
High Date 02/27/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 206.26
Support 130.70
Low 46.64
Low Date 03/09/2009
High 206.10
High Date 02/27/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.