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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 1/24/2025 -
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Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken trend resistance lineLane's Stochastic is oversold
Daily :Relative Strength Index is overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overboughtPrice is close to the 50 Day Moving Average
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It was a third positive week after 5 consecutive negative weeks for the Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB). During the week, the XLB climbed 0.67 points, or 0.76%, and closed at 89.00 on Friday, January 24, 2025. XLB was trading at average weekly trading volume.

Long-term trend: [See XLB long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on March 6, 2009 at 17.83 and reached 97.87 on October 18, 2024. XLB gained -80.04 points, or -448.91%, in 815 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. The uptrend resistance line (71.48) is broken. Usually a broken resistance is considered to be a long-term bullish signal, although a short-term pull back is possible. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See XLB medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term downtrend had started on October 18, 2024 at 97.87 and reached 83.04 on January 3, 2025. XLB lost 14.83 points, or 15.15%, in 11 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Descending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 79.67 and resistance is at 91.19. A Broadening Descending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Descending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Descending Wedge pattern in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See XLB weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Lane's Stochastic is oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with weekly oversold Lane's Stochastic. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following link to access Lane's Stochastic help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since November 8, 2024. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is down. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See XLB short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on January 3, 2025 at 83.04 and reached 89.71 on January 21, 2025. XLB gained -6.67 points, or -8.03%, in 18 days. The price is now at the 10.64% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See XLB daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Relative Strength Index is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Relative Strength Index or strongly overbought daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. Use the following links to access Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since January 7, 2025. This is an indication that the short-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current short-term uptrend is strong.

Price is close to the 50 Day Moving Average. While daily technical indicators are overbought, the 50 Day Moving Average is considered a resistance level. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 80.31
Overbought
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 1.20
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 90.75
Strong Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 89.95
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.69
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 35.58
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 55.60
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 17.19
Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 35.17
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.01
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 91.59
Monthly Trendline Resistance 91.19
Daily Stochastic Crossing 89.32
50 Day Moving Average 89.16
Price 89.00
Yearly Trendline Resistance 87.20
Parabolic System 86.56
20 Day Moving Average 85.80
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 85.56
Lower Bollinger Band 82.86
Monthly Trendline Support 79.67
Yearly Trendline Support 71.48
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 83.08
Low Date 01/10/2025
High 89.71
High Date 01/21/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 83.04
Low Date 01/03/2025
High 89.71
High Date 01/21/2025
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Broadening Descending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 91.19
Support 79.67
High 97.87
High Date 10/18/2024
Low 83.04
Low Date 01/03/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 66.85
Low Date 09/27/2022
High 97.87
High Date 10/18/2024
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Channel
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 87.20
Support 71.48
Low 17.83
Low Date 03/06/2009
High 97.87
High Date 10/18/2024
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.