The Greedy Trader Weekly Analysis
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Uptrend Exhaustion

Uptrend Exhaustion stock alert presents a technical analysis stock market picking technique based on combination of technical indicators, stock trend analysis, trend following indicators and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. Uptrend Exhaustion alert indicates that long term uptrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Uptrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for overvalued stocks.

The strategy is based on selling (or taking a short) position on anticipation of uptrend reversal.

Uptrend Exhaustion

Archive
- 2/20/2026 -
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Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken uptrend resistance line - uptrend exhaustionRelative Strength Index is overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overboughtTrend resistance at 172.96
Daily :Broken uptrend resistance line - uptrend exhaustionRelative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range are overboughtStochastic signal line moved below overbought areaLane's Stochastic and MACD bearish divergence
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It was a fourth consecutive positive week for the Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI). During the week, the XLI gained 3.06 points, or 1.76%, and closed at 177.23 on Friday, February 20, 2026. Weekly volume was 17% above average.

Long-term trend: [See XLI long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on March 6, 2009 at 15.14 and reached 178.22 on February 20, 2026. XLI gained -163.08 points, or -1077.15%, in 885 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. The uptrend resistance line (101.20) is broken, while daily and weekly technical indicators are overbought. Uptrend is exhausted and trend reversal is possible soon. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See XLI medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on September 30, 2022 at 82.75 and reached 178.22 on February 20, 2026. XLI gained -95.47 points, or -115.37%, in 177 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The price is near the trend resistance line (172.96). The resistance is usually stronger when technical indicators are overbought. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with price testing the trend resistance line in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See XLI weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Relative Strength Index is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Relative Strength Index or strongly overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic, Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since January 2, 2026. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is relatively high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current medium-term uptrend is strong. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See XLI short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on November 21, 2025 at 147.14 and reached 178.22 on February 20, 2026. XLI gained -31.08 points, or -21.12%, in 91 days. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. The uptrend resistance line (170.52) is broken, while daily and weekly technical indicators are overbought. Uptrend is exhausted and trend reversal is possible soon. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a short-term trend.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See XLI daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range are overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic signal line (%D) has moved below overbought area. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. Daily Lane's Stochastic and MACD have bearish divergence. Use the following links to access the Lane's Stochastic and MACD help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily Lane's Stochastic and MACD bearish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since February 2, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is up.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 82.59
Overbought
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 14.20
Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 75.93
Bearish
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 81.43
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 3.43 Bearish
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 83.99
Overbought
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 6.70
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 91.47
Strong Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 84.34
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 4.35
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 179.95
Price 177.23
Daily Stochastic Crossing 176.96
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 176.14
Weekly Trendline Resistance 176.13
Parabolic System 175.30
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 172.96
Weekly Trendline Support 170.52
20 Day Moving Average 170.48
50 Day Moving Average 163.76
Lower Bollinger Band 162.10
Monthly Trendline Resistance 157.86
Monthly Trendline Support 150.09
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 163.18
Low Date 01/20/2026
High 178.22
High Date 02/20/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Channel
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 176.13
Support 170.52
Low 147.14
Low Date 11/21/2025
High 178.22
High Date 02/20/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rectangle
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 157.86
Support 150.09
Low 112.80
Low Date 04/07/2025
High 178.22
High Date 02/20/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Test Resistance
Resistance 172.96
Support 123.37
Low 82.75
Low Date 09/30/2022
High 178.22
High Date 02/20/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Channel
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 115.85
Support 101.20
Low 15.14
Low Date 03/06/2009
High 178.22
High Date 02/20/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.