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Uptrend Exhaustion

Uptrend Exhaustion stock alert presents a technical analysis stock market picking technique based on combination of technical indicators, stock trend analysis, trend following indicators and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. Uptrend Exhaustion alert indicates that long term uptrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Uptrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for overvalued stocks.

The strategy is based on selling (or taking a short) position on anticipation of uptrend reversal.

Uptrend Exhaustion

Archive
- 6/13/2025 -
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Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken trend support lineWilliams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overboughtStochastic has declined below the signal line
Daily :Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overboughtStochastic has declined below the signal lineA Parabolic SAR indicator is above and near the price
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It was a third consecutive positive week for the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK). During the week, the XLK climbed 0.81 points, or 0.34%, and closed at 239.17 on Friday, June 13, 2025. Weekly volume was 8% above average.

Long-term trend: [See XLK long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on October 13, 2022 at 112.97 and reached 243.13 on June 12, 2025. XLK gained -130.16 points, or -115.22%, in 139 weeks. Price is near the trend high.

Medium-term trend: [See XLK medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on April 7, 2025 at 172.50 and reached 243.13 on June 12, 2025. XLK gained -70.63 points, or -40.94%, in 9 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The uptrend support line (247.34) is broken. A broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See XLK weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with strongly overbought weekly overbought Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. During the last week, weekly Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has declined below the overbought signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since May 9, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See XLK short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on June 12, 2025 at 243.13 and reached 238.29 on June 13, 2025. XLK lost 4.84 points, or 1.99%, in 1 days. The price is now at the 18.18% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See XLK daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has declined below the overbought signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bearish signal.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since June 12, 2025. This is an indication that the short-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low, but getting bigger. It indicates that the current short-term downtrend is getting stronger.

A Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal) indicator (236.93) comes close to the price (239.17). It indicates that the trend is getting weaker. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 74.80
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 18.70
Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 85.78
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 80.63
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 5.79
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 58.59
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 4.80
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 95.82
Strong Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 82.43
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -1.78
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Monthly Trendline Resistance 260.39
Monthly Trendline Support 247.34
Upper Bollinger Band 242.29
Daily Stochastic Crossing 241.92
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 240.39
Price 239.17
Parabolic System 236.93
20 Day Moving Average 234.88
Lower Bollinger Band 225.23
50 Day Moving Average 217.63
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 243.13
High Date 06/12/2025
Low 238.29
Low Date 06/13/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 225.10
Low Date 05/23/2025
High 243.13
High Date 06/12/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Status Broken Support
Resistance 260.39
Support 247.34
Low 172.50
Low Date 04/07/2025
High 243.13
High Date 06/12/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 112.97
Low Date 10/13/2022
High 243.13
High Date 06/12/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 12.94
Low Date 11/21/2008
High 243.13
High Date 06/12/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.