The Greedy Trader Weekly Analysis
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Uptrend Exhaustion

Uptrend Exhaustion stock alert presents a technical analysis stock market picking technique based on combination of technical indicators, stock trend analysis, trend following indicators and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. Uptrend Exhaustion alert indicates that long term uptrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Uptrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for overvalued stocks.

The strategy is based on selling (or taking a short) position on anticipation of uptrend reversal.

Uptrend Exhaustion

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- 2/13/2026 -
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Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken uptrend resistance line - uptrend exhaustionRelative Strength Index is overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought
Daily :Relative Strength Index, Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overboughtRelative Strength Index bearish divergenceBearish Advance Block CandlestickThe Bollinger Bands are historically far apart
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It was a sixth positive week after 3 consecutive negative weeks for the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP). During the week, the XLP gained 1.57 points, or 1.79%, and closed at 89.51 on Friday, February 13, 2026. Weekly volume was 68% above average.

Long-term trend: [See XLP long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on March 10, 2003 at 17.82 and reached 90.06 on February 12, 2026. XLP gained -72.24 points, or -405.39%, in 1196 weeks. Price is near the trend high.

Medium-term trend: [See XLP medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on November 6, 2025 at 75.16 and reached 90.06 on February 12, 2026. XLP gained -14.90 points, or -19.82%, in 14 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The uptrend resistance line (77.25) is broken, while daily and weekly technical indicators are overbought. Uptrend is exhausted and trend reversal is possible soon. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See XLP weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Relative Strength Index is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Relative Strength Index or strongly overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic, Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since December 12, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current medium-term uptrend is strong. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See XLP short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on January 29, 2026 at 82.01 and reached 90.06 on February 12, 2026. XLP gained -8.05 points, or -9.82%, in 14 days. The price is now at the 6.83% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See XLP daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Relative Strength Index, Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Relative Strength Index, Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. Daily Relative Strength Index has bearish divergence. Use the following links to access the Relative Strength Index help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily Relative Strength Index bearish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since January 8, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is relatively high, but getting smaller. It indicates that the current short-term uptrend is still strong, and momentum is beginning to wane.

The distance between the Bollinger Bands (11.71%) is close to one year high (10.54%). It is 129.94% higher then one year average. It indicates the period of high volatility of the stock price, and it is considered a sell signal for the option traders. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Candlestick pattern: [See XLP candlestick chart pattern]
On Friday the chart has formed a Bearish Advance Block Candlestick pattern. This pattern occurs in an uptrend; it is not a top reversal pattern, but it might precede a meaningful price decline. The reliability of the Bearish Advance Block pattern is medium. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks that had a Bearish Advance Block Candlestick pattern during the last week.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 82.02
Overbought Bearish
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 11.70
Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 88.79
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 86.38
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 1.96
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 85.40
Overbought
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 6.70
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 94.81
Strong Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 85.89
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.03
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 90.51
Daily Stochastic Crossing 89.64
Price 89.51
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 89.33
Parabolic System 87.87
20 Day Moving Average 85.00
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 84.22
50 Day Moving Average 81.26
Lower Bollinger Band 80.04
Quarterly Trendline Support 77.25
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 82.01
Low Date 01/29/2026
High 90.06
High Date 02/12/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 82.01
Low Date 01/29/2026
High 90.06
High Date 02/12/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 76.51
Low Date 01/08/2026
High 90.06
High Date 02/12/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 84.22
Support 77.25
Low 75.16
Low Date 11/06/2025
High 90.06
High Date 02/12/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 17.82
Low Date 03/10/2003
High 90.06
High Date 02/12/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.