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Uptrend Exhaustion

Uptrend Exhaustion stock alert presents a technical analysis stock market picking technique based on combination of technical indicators, stock trend analysis, trend following indicators and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. Uptrend Exhaustion alert indicates that long term uptrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Uptrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for overvalued stocks.

The strategy is based on selling (or taking a short) position on anticipation of uptrend reversal.

Uptrend Exhaustion

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- 11/14/2025 -
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Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Lane's Stochastic is overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly overboughtStochastic has declined below the signal lineBroken trend resistance line
Daily :Williams' Percentage Range is overboughtLane's Stochastic is strongly overboughtDaily  MACD line has moved above its signal line
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It was a second consecutive positive week for the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV). During the week, the XLV gained 5.69 points, or 3.89%, and closed at 151.83 on Friday, November 14, 2025. Weekly volume was 48% above average.

Long-term trend: [See XLV long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on September 4, 2024 at 159.64 and reached 127.35 on May 15, 2025. XLV lost 32.29 points, or 20.23%, in 36 weeks. The chart has formed a Falling Channel chart pattern. The downtrend resistance line (117.17) is broken. Usually a broken resistance is considered to be a long-term bullish signal, but since daily indicators are overbought a short-term pull back is possible. XLV may retest the broken resistance line. It is considered to be a support line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See XLV medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on May 15, 2025 at 127.35 and reached 154.52 on November 13, 2025. XLV gained -27.17 points, or -21.33%, in 26 weeks. The price is now at the 9.90% retracement level.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See XLV weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Lane's Stochastic is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Lane's Stochastic or strongly overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range. During the last week, weekly Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has declined below the overbought signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since July 3, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current medium-term uptrend is strong. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See XLV short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on September 25, 2025 at 133.73 and reached 154.52 on November 13, 2025. XLV gained -20.79 points, or -15.55%, in 49 days. The price is now at the 12.94% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See XLV daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Williams' Percentage Range is overbought while Lane's Stochastic is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Williams' Percentage Range or strongly overbought daily Lane's Stochastic.

During the last week, daily MACD line has moved above its signal line. Such crossover is considered a bullish signal.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 72.16
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 19.50
Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 90.50
Strong Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 81.06
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 1.85
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 79.01
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 8.70
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 87.65
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 81.14
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.50
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Daily Stochastic Crossing 153.39
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 152.61
Upper Bollinger Band 152.53
Price 151.83
Parabolic System 146.81
20 Day Moving Average 146.75
50 Day Moving Average 142.60
Lower Bollinger Band 141.42
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 135.30
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 133.73
Low Date 09/25/2025
High 154.52
High Date 11/13/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 127.96
Low Date 08/07/2025
High 154.52
High Date 11/13/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 127.35
Low Date 05/15/2025
High 154.52
High Date 11/13/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Channel
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 135.30
Support 117.17
High 159.64
High Date 09/04/2024
Low 127.35
Low Date 05/15/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 21.63
Low Date 03/06/2009
High 159.64
High Date 09/04/2024
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.