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Uptrend Exhaustion

Uptrend Exhaustion stock alert presents a technical analysis stock market picking technique based on combination of technical indicators, stock trend analysis, trend following indicators and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. Uptrend Exhaustion alert indicates that long term uptrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Uptrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for overvalued stocks.

The strategy is based on selling (or taking a short) position on anticipation of uptrend reversal.

Uptrend Exhaustion

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- 4/26/2024 -
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Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken trend support line
Daily :Stochastic has raised above the signal lineThe price has risen above the Parabolic SARThe price moved above the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands
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It was a first positive week after 3 consecutive negative weeks for the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY). During the week, the XLY gained 6.15 points, or 3.62%, and closed at 175.91 on Friday, April 26, 2024. Weekly volume was -13% below average.

Long-term trend: [See XLY long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on December 28, 2022 at 126.00 and reached 185.29 on March 1, 2024. XLY gained -59.29 points, or -47.06%, in 61 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 160.75 and resistance is at 186.76. A Rising Wage is a triangle formation with a noticeable slant to the upside. It represents the loss of an upside momentum on each successive high and has a bearish bias. The Rising wedge usually marks a reversal in an uptrend. In a downtrend a rising wedge is considered to be a continuation pattern. Use the following link to access a Rising Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Rising Wedge pattern in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See XLY medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on October 26, 2023 at 147.83 and reached 185.29 on March 1, 2024. XLY gained -37.46 points, or -25.34%, in 18 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The uptrend support line (192.69) is broken. A broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See XLY weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly technical indicators are neutral.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since April 5, 2024. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See XLY short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on March 1, 2024 at 185.29 and reached 168.90 on April 22, 2024. XLY lost 16.39 points, or 8.85%, in 52 days. The chart has formed a Broadening Right-Angled, Descending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 167.51 and resistance is at 185.10. A Broadening Descending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Right-Angled, Descending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Right-Angled, Descending Wedge pattern in a short-term trend.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See XLY daily technical indicators chart]
Daily technical indicators are neutral. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has rallied above the oversold signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bullish signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following link to access Lane's Stochastic help.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since April 1, 2024. This is an indication that the short-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. It indicates that the current short-term downtrend is getting weak.

During the last week, the price has risen above the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). A Parabolic SAR below the price is a bullish signal, and it indicates that momentum is likely to remain in the upward direction. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

During the last week, the price has moved above the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 39.24
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 60.70
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 48.13
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 42.20
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -1.87
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50.99
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 63.10
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 45.52
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 45.06
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 4.08
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Monthly Trendline Support 192.69
Monthly Trendline Resistance 187.81
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 186.76
Weekly Trendline Resistance 185.10
Upper Bollinger Band 183.48
50 Day Moving Average 179.33
20 Day Moving Average 176.24
Price 175.91
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 174.70
Daily Stochastic Crossing 173.55
Parabolic System 169.20
Lower Bollinger Band 168.21
Weekly Trendline Support 167.51
Quarterly Trendline Support 160.75
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 185.22
High Date 03/21/2024
Low 168.90
Low Date 04/22/2024
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Broadening Right-Angled, Descending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 185.10
Support 167.51
High 185.29
High Date 03/01/2024
Low 168.90
Low Date 04/22/2024
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Status Broken Support
Resistance 187.81
Support 192.69
Low 147.83
Low Date 10/26/2023
High 185.29
High Date 03/01/2024
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 186.76
Support 160.75
Low 126.00
Low Date 12/28/2022
High 185.29
High Date 03/01/2024
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 215.06
High Date 11/22/2021
Low 126.00
Low Date 12/28/2022
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.