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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 10/10/2025 -
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Dow Chemical (DOW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Oversold sectorWilliams' Percentage Range is oversold
Daily :Daily  MACD line has moved below its signal lineThe price has fallen below the Parabolic SARThe price is below the lower Bollinger Band20 Day Moving Average has crossed below the 50 Day Moving AverageLane's Stochastic and MACD bullish divergence
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It was the negative week for the Dow Chemical (DOW). During the week, the DOW dropped -3.17 points, or -13.31%, and closed at 20.65 on Friday, October 10, 2025. It was the worst weekly loss since August 1, 2025. Weekly volume was 45% above average.

DOW is a member of Materials Sector. Materials is the second most oversold sector. Sector/industry rotation is considered a proven strategy to beat the market. Use the following links to find overbought/oversold technical indicators by Sector or by Industry.

Long-term trend: [See DOW long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on April 4, 2024 at 60.69 and reached 20.40 on August 11, 2025. DOW lost 40.29 points, or 66.39%, in 70 weeks. The chart has formed a Falling Channel chart pattern. The trend support level is at 17.42 and resistance is at 23.35. A Falling Channel represents price movement contained between parallel lower (support) and upper (resistance) trend lines. Trading Channeling stocks is one of the most reliable and accurate trading techniques that provide traders with precise entry and exit points as well as stop-losses and take-profit recommendations. Use the following link to access a Falling Channel chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Falling Channel pattern in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See DOW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term downtrend had started on September 27, 2024 at 55.67 and reached 20.40 on August 11, 2025. DOW lost 35.27 points, or 63.36%, in 45 weeks. Price is near the trend low.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See DOW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Williams' Percentage Range is oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with weekly oversold Williams' Percentage Range. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following link to access Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since August 22, 2025. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See DOW short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on September 17, 2025 at 25.77 and reached 20.65 on October 10, 2025. DOW lost 5.12 points, or 19.87%, in 23 days. Price is near the trend low.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See DOW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily technical indicators are neutral. Daily Lane's Stochastic and MACD have bullish divergence. Use the following links to access the Lane's Stochastic and MACD help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily Lane's Stochastic and MACD bullish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal. Use the following link to access Lane's Stochastic help.

During the last week, daily MACD line has moved below its signal line. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal.

During the last week, the price has fallen below the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). A Parabolic SAR above the price is a bearish signal, and it indicates that momentum is likely to remain in the downward direction. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

The price has closed on Friday below the lower Bollinger Band. It is considered a bearish signal. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

During the last week, the 20 Day Moving Average has crossed below the 50 Day Moving Average. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 31.02
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 69.30
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 23.36
Bullish
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 28.35
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.37 Bullish
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 31.02
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 83.10
Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 38.08
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 31.13
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -3.44
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 24.80
Parabolic System 23.74
Monthly Trendline Resistance 23.35
50 Day Moving Average 23.34
20 Day Moving Average 23.14
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 22.60
Lower Bollinger Band 21.24
Daily Stochastic Crossing 21.07
Price 20.65
Monthly Trendline Support 17.42
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector Materials 2
Industry Commodity Chemicals 21
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 25.77
High Date 09/17/2025
Low 20.65
Low Date 10/10/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 55.67
High Date 09/27/2024
Low 20.40
Low Date 08/11/2025
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Channel
Status Valid
Resistance 23.35
Support 17.42
High 60.69
High Date 04/04/2024
Low 20.40
Low Date 08/11/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 60.88
High Date 02/07/2023
Low 20.40
Low Date 08/11/2025
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 71.86
High Date 04/21/2022
Low 20.40
Low Date 08/11/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.