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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 2/20/2026 -
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Dow Chemical (DOW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Overbought sectorLane's Stochastic is overboughtBroken trend resistance linePrice is near the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level
Daily :Stochastic signal line moved below overbought areaDaily  MACD line has moved below its signal lineThe price has fallen below the Parabolic SARThe price is close to the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands
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It was the negative week for the Dow Chemical (DOW). During the week, the DOW dropped -1.97 points, or -6.06%, and closed at 30.52 on Friday, February 20, 2026. It was the worst weekly loss since October 10, 2025. DOW was trading at average weekly trading volume.

DOW is a member of Materials Sector. Materials is the most overbought sector. Sector/industry rotation is considered a proven strategy to beat the market. Use the following links to find overbought/oversold technical indicators by Sector or by Industry.

Long-term trend: [See DOW long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on April 4, 2024 at 60.69 and reached 20.40 on August 11, 2025. DOW lost 40.29 points, or 66.39%, in 70 weeks. Price is near the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level. The Fibonacci retracement level is considered a support/resistance level.

Medium-term trend: [See DOW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on August 11, 2025 at 20.40 and reached 34.77 on February 11, 2026. DOW gained -14.37 points, or -70.44%, in 26 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. The uptrend resistance line (21.61) is broken. Usually a broken resistance is considered to be a long-term bullish signal, although a short-term pull back is possible. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See DOW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Lane's Stochastic is overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Lane's Stochastic. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following link to access Lane's Stochastic help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since August 22, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high, but getting smaller. It indicates that the current medium-term uptrend is still strong, and momentum is beginning to wane. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See DOW short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on November 20, 2025 at 20.93 and reached 34.77 on February 11, 2026. DOW gained -13.84 points, or -66.13%, in 83 days. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See DOW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily technical indicators are neutral. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic signal line (%D) has moved below overbought area. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal.

During the last week, daily MACD line has moved below its signal line. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal.

During the last week, the price has fallen below the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). A Parabolic SAR above the price is a bearish signal, and it indicates that momentum is likely to remain in the downward direction. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

The price is close to the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.72
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 42.50
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 30.81
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 49.69
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 1.61
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 71.57
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 26.90
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 84.91
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 73.45
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.52
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Parabolic System 34.80
Upper Bollinger Band 34.65
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 32.85
Daily Stochastic Crossing 30.71
20 Day Moving Average 30.53
Price 30.52
50 Day Moving Average 27.15
Weekly Trendline Resistance 26.84
Lower Bollinger Band 26.23
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector Materials 11
Industry Commodity Chemicals 93
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Low 20.93
Low Date 11/20/2025
High 34.77
High Date 02/11/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Channel
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 26.84
Support 21.61
Low 20.40
Low Date 08/11/2025
High 34.77
High Date 02/11/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 60.69
High Date 04/04/2024
Low 20.40
Low Date 08/11/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 60.88
High Date 02/07/2023
Low 20.40
Low Date 08/11/2025
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 71.86
High Date 04/21/2022
Low 20.40
Low Date 08/11/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.