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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 10/2/2026 -
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Dow Chemical (DOW) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken trend resistance lineWilliams' Percentage Range is oversoldLane's Stochastic bullish divergenceBroken trend support line
Daily :Williams' Percentage Range is oversoldStochastic has raised above the signal lineA Parabolic SAR indicator is below and near the price
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It was the negative week for the Dow Chemical (DOW). During the week, the DOW gave back -0.05 points, or -0.18%, and closed at 27.97 on Friday, October 2, 2026. Weekly volume was -26% below average.

Long-term trend: [See DOW long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on April 21, 2022 at 71.86 and reached 20.40 on August 11, 2025. DOW lost 51.46 points, or 71.61%, in 172 weeks. The chart has formed a Falling Wedge chart pattern. The downtrend resistance line (11.23) is broken. A broken support is considered to be a long-term bullish signal. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See DOW medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on August 11, 2025 at 20.40 and reached 42.74 on March 31, 2026. DOW gained -22.34 points, or -109.51%, in 33 weeks. The chart has formed a Symmetric Triangle chart pattern. The uptrend support line (28.66) is broken. Usually a broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal, but since daily indicators are oversold a short-term pull back is possible. DOW may retest the broken support line. It is considered to be a resistance line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See DOW weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Williams' Percentage Range is strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with weekly strongly oversold Williams' Percentage Range. Weekly Lane's Stochastic has bullish divergence. Use the following links to access the Lane's Stochastic help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with weekly Lane's Stochastic bullish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since May 22, 2026. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low, but getting bigger. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See DOW short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on August 20, 2026 at 33.40 and reached 26.61 on October 1, 2026. DOW lost 6.79 points, or 20.33%, in 42 days. The chart has formed a Falling Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 27.10 and resistance is at 28.07. A Falling Wedge is a triangle formation with a noticeable slant to the downside. It represents the loss of a downside momentum on each successive low and has a bullish bias. The Falling wedge usually marks a reversal in a downtrend. In an uptrend a falling wedge is considered to be a continuation pattern. Use the following link to access a Falling Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Falling Wedge pattern in a short-term trend.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See DOW daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Williams' Percentage Range is oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily oversold Williams' Percentage Range. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has rallied above the oversold signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bullish signal.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since August 25, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. It indicates that the current short-term downtrend is getting weak.

A Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal) indicator (28.18) comes close to the price (27.97). It indicates that the trend is getting weaker. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 40.79
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 82.50
Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 27.07
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 28.46
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.60
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 45.69
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 95.00
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 25.95
Bullish
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 26.70
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.45 Bullish
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Monthly Trendline Resistance 30.60
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 30.54
Upper Bollinger Band 30.30
50 Day Moving Average 29.82
20 Day Moving Average 28.72
Quarterly Trendline Support 28.66
Parabolic System 28.18
Weekly Trendline Resistance 28.07
Price 27.97
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 27.83
Daily Stochastic Crossing 27.38
Lower Bollinger Band 27.13
Weekly Trendline Support 27.10
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector Materials 6
Industry Commodity Chemicals 25
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 26.61
Low Date 10/01/2026
High 28.15
High Date 10/02/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 28.07
Support 27.10
High 33.40
High Date 08/20/2026
Low 26.61
Low Date 10/01/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Broadening Descending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 30.60
Support 16.60
High 42.74
High Date 03/31/2026
Low 26.61
Low Date 10/01/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Symmetric Triangle
Status Broken Support
Resistance 30.54
Support 28.66
Low 20.40
Low Date 08/11/2025
High 42.74
High Date 03/31/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Wedge
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 10.59
Support 11.23
High 71.86
High Date 04/21/2022
Low 20.40
Low Date 08/11/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.