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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 1/30/2026 -
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HarleyDavidson (HOG) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Oversold industryRelative Strength Index oversoldWilliams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly oversold
Daily :Daily  MACD line has moved below its signal lineLane's Stochastic oversoldWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly oversold
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It was the negative week for the HarleyDavidson (HOG). During the week, the HOG dropped -0.50 points, or -2.46%, and closed at 19.80 on Friday, January 30, 2026. Weekly volume was 36% above average.

HOG is a member of Motorcycle Manufacturers Industry. Motorcycle Manufacturers is the most oversold industry. Sector/industry rotation is considered a proven strategy to beat the market. Use the following links to find overbought/oversold technical indicators by Sector or by Industry.

Long-term trend: [See HOG long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on September 17, 2025 at 31.25 and reached 19.44 on January 30, 2026. HOG lost 11.81 points, or 37.79%, in 19 weeks. The chart has formed a Falling Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 18.50 and resistance is at 19.94. A Falling Wedge is a triangle formation with a noticeable slant to the downside. It represents the loss of a downside momentum on each successive low and has a bullish bias. The Falling wedge usually marks a reversal in a downtrend. In an uptrend a falling wedge is considered to be a continuation pattern. Use the following link to access a Falling Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Falling Wedge pattern in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See HOG medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term downtrend had started on October 24, 2025 at 28.36 and reached 19.44 on January 30, 2026. HOG lost 8.92 points, or 31.45%, in 14 weeks. The chart has formed a Falling Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 19.37 and resistance is at 19.94. Use the following link to access a Falling Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Falling Wedge pattern in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See HOG weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Relative Strength Index is oversold while Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold weekly Relative Strength Index or strongly oversold weekly Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic, Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since October 31, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is down. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See HOG short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on January 12, 2026 at 21.58 and reached 19.44 on January 30, 2026. HOG lost 2.14 points, or 9.92%, in 18 days. The price is now at the 16.82% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See HOG daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is oversold while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold daily Lane's Stochastic or strongly oversold daily Williams' Percentage Range.

During the last week, daily MACD line has moved below its signal line. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 28.38
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 90.20
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 11.87
Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 16.69
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.52
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 15.22
Oversold
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 98.20
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 7.38
Strong Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 13.73
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -1.13 Bullish
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
50 Day Moving Average 21.67
Upper Bollinger Band 21.59
20 Day Moving Average 20.58
Parabolic System 20.49
Monthly Trendline Resistance 19.94
Weekly Trendline Resistance 19.94
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 19.89
Price 19.80
Daily Stochastic Crossing 19.64
Lower Bollinger Band 19.52
Weekly Trendline Support 19.37
Monthly Trendline Support 18.50
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector Consumer Discretionary 7
Industry Motorcycle Manufacturers 1
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 21.58
High Date 01/12/2026
Low 19.44
Low Date 01/30/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 19.94
Support 19.37
High 28.36
High Date 10/24/2025
Low 19.44
Low Date 01/30/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 19.94
Support 18.50
High 31.25
High Date 09/17/2025
Low 19.44
Low Date 01/30/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 51.77
High Date 02/02/2023
Low 19.44
Low Date 01/30/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 52.06
High Date 05/18/2021
Low 19.44
Low Date 01/30/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.