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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 9/26/2025 -
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Paychex Inc. (PAYX) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Lane's Stochastic oversoldWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly oversoldTrend resistance at 123.14
Daily :Lane's Stochastic oversoldWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly oversoldStochastic has raised above the signal lineA Parabolic SAR indicator is below and near the price
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It was the negative week for the Paychex Inc. (PAYX). During the week, the PAYX dropped -1.79 points, or -1.38%, and closed at 128.21 on Friday, September 26, 2025. Weekly volume was 81% above average.

Long-term trend: [See PAYX long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on March 3, 2009 at 20.31 and reached 161.24 on June 6, 2025. PAYX gained -140.93 points, or -693.89%, in 848 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The price is near the trend resistance line (123.14). The resistance is usually stronger when technical indicators are overbought. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with price testing the trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See PAYX medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on May 31, 2023 at 104.09 and reached 161.24 on June 6, 2025. PAYX gained -57.15 points, or -54.90%, in 105 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 115.97 and resistance is at 166.44. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See PAYX weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Lane's Stochastic is oversold while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold weekly Lane's Stochastic or strongly oversold weekly Williams' Percentage Range. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since June 20, 2025. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high and getting bigger. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See PAYX short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on August 22, 2025 at 141.19 and reached 126.13 on September 25, 2025. PAYX lost 15.06 points, or 10.67%, in 34 days. The price is now at the 13.81% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See PAYX daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is oversold while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold daily Lane's Stochastic or strongly oversold daily Williams' Percentage Range. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has rallied above the oversold signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bullish signal.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since September 4, 2025. This is an indication that the short-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low, but getting bigger. It indicates that the current short-term downtrend is getting stronger.

A Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal) indicator (129.31) comes close to the price (128.21). It indicates that the trend is getting weaker. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 29.40
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 92.30
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 14.96
Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 17.35
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -2.50
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 27.03
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 97.10
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 13.12
Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 18.31
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -1.40
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 139.12
50 Day Moving Average 137.73
20 Day Moving Average 132.87
Parabolic System 129.31
Price 128.21
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 127.87
Daily Stochastic Crossing 127.07
Lower Bollinger Band 125.81
Yearly Trendline Resistance 123.14
Quarterly Trendline Support 115.97
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector Information Technology 7
Industry Data Processing & Outsourced Services 21
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 141.19
High Date 08/22/2025
Low 126.13
Low Date 09/25/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 148.76
High Date 07/01/2025
Low 126.13
Low Date 09/25/2025
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 161.24
High Date 06/06/2025
Low 126.13
Low Date 09/25/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 166.44
Support 115.97
Low 104.09
Low Date 05/31/2023
High 161.24
High Date 06/06/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Test Resistance
Resistance 123.14
Support 61.49
Low 20.31
Low Date 03/03/2009
High 161.24
High Date 06/06/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.