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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 11/14/2025 -
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Paychex Inc. (PAYX) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Relative Strength Index and Lane's Stochastic oversoldWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly oversoldLane's Stochastic bullish divergenceTrend support at 116.68
Daily :Relative Strength Index, Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are oversoldStochastic has raised above the signal lineThe period of high volatility of the stock price
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It was a first positive week after 3 consecutive negative weeks for the Paychex Inc. (PAYX). During the week, the PAYX climbed 0.14 points, or 0.13%, and closed at 112.10 on Friday, November 14, 2025. Weekly volume was 13% above average.

Long-term trend: [See PAYX long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on March 3, 2009 at 20.31 and reached 161.24 on June 6, 2025. PAYX gained -140.93 points, or -693.89%, in 848 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 61.84 and resistance is at 123.96. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See PAYX medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on May 31, 2023 at 104.09 and reached 161.24 on June 6, 2025. PAYX gained -57.15 points, or -54.90%, in 105 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The price is near the trend support (116.68) line. The support is usually stronger when technical indicators are oversold. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with price testing the trend support line in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See PAYX weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Relative Strength Index and Lane's Stochastic are oversold while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold weekly Relative Strength Index and Lane's Stochastic or strongly oversold weekly Williams' Percentage Range. Weekly Lane's Stochastic has bullish divergence. Use the following links to access the Lane's Stochastic help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with weekly Lane's Stochastic bullish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic, Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since June 20, 2025. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high and getting bigger. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See PAYX short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on October 15, 2025 at 129.24 and reached 109.99 on November 13, 2025. PAYX lost 19.25 points, or 14.89%, in 29 days. The price is now at the 10.96% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See PAYX daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Relative Strength Index, Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily oversold Relative Strength Index, Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has rallied above the oversold signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bullish signal.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since October 28, 2025. This is an indication that the short-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. It indicates that the current short-term downtrend is getting weak.

The distance between the Bollinger Bands is 147.16% higher then one year average. It indicates the period of high volatility of the stock price. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 14.24
Oversold
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 87.60
Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 19.11
Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 15.25
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -3.91
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 12.11
Oversold
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 94.00
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 18.78
Oversold Bullish
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 18.73
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -4.95
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 128.96
50 Day Moving Average 124.53
Yearly Trendline Resistance 123.96
20 Day Moving Average 118.02
Quarterly Trendline Support 116.68
Parabolic System 113.63
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 112.95
Price 112.10
Daily Stochastic Crossing 111.48
Lower Bollinger Band 105.27
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector Information Technology 6
Industry Data Processing & Outsourced Services 31
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 109.99
Low Date 11/13/2025
High 112.63
High Date 11/14/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 129.24
High Date 10/15/2025
Low 109.99
Low Date 11/13/2025
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 161.24
High Date 06/06/2025
Low 109.99
Low Date 11/13/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Test Support
Resistance 168.80
Support 116.68
Low 104.09
Low Date 05/31/2023
High 161.24
High Date 06/06/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 123.96
Support 61.84
Low 20.31
Low Date 03/03/2009
High 161.24
High Date 06/06/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.