The Greedy Trader Weekly Analysis
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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 9/25/2026 -
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iShares Lehman TIPS Bond (TIP) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken trend support line - Downtrend exhaustionRelative Strength Index oversoldWilliams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly oversoldLane's Stochastic bullish divergenceBroken trend support line
Daily :Lane's Stochastic oversoldWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly oversoldStochastic has raised above the signal lineLane's Stochastic bullish divergenceA Parabolic SAR indicator is below and near the priceThe Bollinger Bands are historically far apart
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It was the negative week for the iShares Lehman TIPS Bond (TIP). During the week, the TIP gave back -0.73 points, or -0.69%, and closed at 104.54 on Friday, September 25, 2026. Weekly volume was -13% below average.

Long-term trend: [See TIP long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on October 6, 2023 at 101.74 and reached 112.26 on September 17, 2025. TIP gained -10.52 points, or -10.34%, in 101 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The uptrend support line (111.08) is broken. Usually a broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal, but since daily indicators are oversold a short-term pull back is possible. TIP may retest the broken support line. It is considered to be a resistance line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See TIP medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term downtrend had started on April 27, 2026 at 111.88 and reached 104.20 on September 25, 2026. TIP lost 7.68 points, or 6.86%, in 21 weeks. The chart has formed a Falling Channel chart pattern. The downtrend support line (105.34) is broken, while daily and weekly technical indicators are oversold. Downtrend is exhausted and trend reversal is possible soon. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See TIP weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Relative Strength Index is oversold while Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold weekly Relative Strength Index or strongly oversold weekly Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. Weekly Lane's Stochastic has bullish divergence. Use the following links to access the Lane's Stochastic help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with weekly Lane's Stochastic bullish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic, Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since May 15, 2026. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is relatively high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current medium-term downtrend is strong. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See TIP short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on August 25, 2026 at 107.65 and reached 104.20 on September 25, 2026. TIP lost 3.45 points, or 3.20%, in 31 days. The price is now at the 9.86% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See TIP daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is oversold while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold daily Lane's Stochastic or strongly oversold daily Williams' Percentage Range. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has rallied above the oversold signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bullish signal. Daily Lane's Stochastic has bullish divergence. Use the following links to access the Lane's Stochastic help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily Lane's Stochastic bullish divergence.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since September 8, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is relatively high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current short-term downtrend is strong.

A Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal) indicator (105.29) comes close to the price (104.54). It indicates that the trend is getting weaker. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

The distance between the Bollinger Bands (3.25%) is close to one year high (2.70%). It is 125.57% higher then one year average. It indicates the period of high volatility of the stock price, and it is considered a sell signal for the option traders. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 23.18
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 94.20
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 14.07
Oversold Bullish
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 14.36
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.51
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 11.81
Oversold
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 97.30
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 9.87
Strong Oversold Bullish
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 16.03
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.90 Bullish
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Yearly Trendline Resistance 113.50
Yearly Trendline Support 111.08
Upper Bollinger Band 107.56
50 Day Moving Average 106.82
Weekly Trendline Resistance 106.46
20 Day Moving Average 106.01
Weekly Trendline Support 105.34
Parabolic System 105.29
Price 104.54
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 104.44
Daily Stochastic Crossing 104.42
Lower Bollinger Band 104.14
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 107.65
High Date 08/25/2026
Low 104.20
Low Date 09/25/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Channel
Status Broken Support
Resistance 106.46
Support 105.34
High 111.88
High Date 04/27/2026
Low 104.20
Low Date 09/25/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 111.98
High Date 02/27/2026
Low 104.20
Low Date 09/25/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 112.26
High Date 09/17/2025
Low 104.20
Low Date 09/25/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Status Broken Support
Resistance 113.50
Support 111.08
Low 101.74
Low Date 10/06/2023
High 112.26
High Date 09/17/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.