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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 9/25/2026 -
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United Parcel Service (UPS) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Lane's Stochastic oversoldWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly oversoldBroken trend support line
Daily :The price has fallen below the Parabolic SARLane's Stochastic oversoldWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly oversoldLane's Stochastic bullish divergence20 Day Moving Average has crossed above the 50 Day Moving AverageBullish Harami Candlestick
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It was the negative week for the United Parcel Service (UPS). During the week, the UPS dropped -5.10 points, or -5.15%, and closed at 93.96 on Friday, September 25, 2026. It was the worst weekly loss since July 31, 2026. UPS was trading at average weekly trading volume.

Long-term trend: [See UPS long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on February 1, 2022 at 233.72 and reached 82.00 on September 11, 2025. UPS lost 151.72 points, or 64.92%, in 188 weeks. The chart has formed a Falling Channel chart pattern. The trend support level is at 55.86 and resistance is at 111.87. A Falling Channel represents price movement contained between parallel lower (support) and upper (resistance) trend lines. Trading Channeling stocks is one of the most reliable and accurate trading techniques that provide traders with precise entry and exit points as well as stop-losses and take-profit recommendations. Use the following link to access a Falling Channel chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Falling Channel pattern in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See UPS medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on September 11, 2025 at 82.00 and reached 122.41 on February 12, 2026. UPS gained -40.41 points, or -49.28%, in 22 weeks. The chart has formed a Symmetric Triangle chart pattern. The uptrend support line (100.00) is broken. Usually a broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal, but since daily indicators are oversold a short-term pull back is possible. UPS may retest the broken support line. It is considered to be a resistance line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See UPS weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Lane's Stochastic is oversold while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold weekly Lane's Stochastic or strongly oversold weekly Williams' Percentage Range. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since August 7, 2026. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See UPS short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on August 26, 2026 at 107.11 and reached 91.63 on September 24, 2026. UPS lost 15.48 points, or 14.45%, in 29 days. The price is now at the 15.05% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See UPS daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is oversold while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold daily Lane's Stochastic or strongly oversold daily Williams' Percentage Range. Daily Lane's Stochastic has bullish divergence. Use the following links to access the Lane's Stochastic help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily Lane's Stochastic bullish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since September 15, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is down.

During the last week, the price has fallen below the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). A Parabolic SAR above the price is a bearish signal, and it indicates that momentum is likely to remain in the downward direction. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

During the last week, the 20 Day Moving Average has advanced above the 50 Day Moving Average. Such crossover is considered a bullish signal. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Candlestick pattern: [See UPS candlestick chart pattern]
On Friday the chart has formed a Bullish Harami Candlestick pattern. A Bullish Harami indicates that the bearish trend may be reversing, it signals that it's a good time to enter into a long position. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks that had a Bullish Harami Candlestick pattern during the last week.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 32.40
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 91.70
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 13.28
Oversold Bullish
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 18.01
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -2.09
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 37.56
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 95.40
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 10.28
Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 18.74
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.68
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Yearly Trendline Resistance 111.87
Upper Bollinger Band 106.27
50 Day Moving Average 104.12
Quarterly Trendline Support 100.00
20 Day Moving Average 99.81
Parabolic System 96.85
Price 93.96
Daily Stochastic Crossing 93.21
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 93.16
Lower Bollinger Band 91.96
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector Industrials 3
Industry Air Freight & Logistics 37
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 107.11
High Date 08/26/2026
Low 91.63
Low Date 09/24/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 118.42
High Date 07/17/2026
Low 91.63
Low Date 09/24/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 122.41
High Date 02/12/2026
Low 91.63
Low Date 09/24/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Symmetric Triangle
Status Broken Support
Resistance 116.58
Support 100.00
Low 82.00
Low Date 09/11/2025
High 122.41
High Date 02/12/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Channel
Status Valid
Resistance 111.87
Support 55.86
High 233.72
High Date 02/01/2022
Low 82.00
Low Date 09/11/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.