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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 4/25/2025 -
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American Airlines Group (AAL) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken trend support lineOversold industryRelative Strength Index, Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are oversold
Daily :20 Day Moving Average has crossed above the 50 Day Moving Average
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It was a first positive week for the American Airlines Group (AAL). During the week, the AAL gained 0.29 points, or 3.07%, and closed at 9.75 on Friday, April 25, 2025. Weekly volume was 92% above average.

AAL is a member of Airlines Industry. Airlines is the seventh most oversold industry. Sector/industry rotation is considered a proven strategy to beat the market. Use the following links to find overbought/oversold technical indicators by Sector or by Industry.

Long-term trend: [See AAL long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on January 16, 2018 at 59.08 and reached 8.25 on May 14, 2020. AAL lost 50.83 points, or 86.04%, in 121 weeks. The chart has formed a Symmetric Triangle chart pattern. The downtrend support line (12.84) is broken. Usually a broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal, although a short-term pull back is possible. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See AAL medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term downtrend had started on January 22, 2025 at 19.10 and reached 8.50 on April 4, 2025. AAL lost 10.60 points, or 55.50%, in 10 weeks. The price is now at the 11.79% retracement level.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See AAL weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Relative Strength Index, Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with weekly oversold Relative Strength Index, Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic, Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since February 21, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high, but getting smaller. It indicates that the current medium-term downtrend is still strong, and momentum is beginning to wane. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See AAL short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on March 25, 2025 at 12.07 and reached 8.50 on April 4, 2025. AAL lost 3.57 points, or 29.58%, in 10 days. The chart has formed a Symmetric Triangle chart pattern.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See AAL daily technical indicators chart]
Daily technical indicators are neutral.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since April 8, 2025.

During the last week, the 20 Day Moving Average has advanced above the 50 Day Moving Average. Such crossover is considered a bullish signal. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 52.19
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 60.10
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 35.53
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 42.55
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.80
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 11.58
Oversold
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 89.70
Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 11.19
Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 18.01
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.18
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
50 Day Moving Average 11.83
Upper Bollinger Band 11.14
Parabolic System 11.06
20 Day Moving Average 9.78
Price 9.75
Daily Stochastic Crossing 9.42
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 9.19
Lower Bollinger Band 8.92
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector Industrials 6
Industry Airlines 7
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Symmetric Triangle
High 12.07
High Date 03/25/2025
Low 8.50
Low Date 04/04/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 19.10
High Date 01/22/2025
Low 8.50
Low Date 04/04/2025
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 16.15
High Date 03/04/2024
Low 8.50
Low Date 04/04/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 26.09
High Date 03/18/2021
Low 8.50
Low Date 04/04/2025
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Symmetric Triangle
Status Broken Support
Resistance 12.79
Support 12.84
High 59.08
High Date 01/16/2018
Low 8.25
Low Date 05/14/2020
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.